Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs
Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs
复制标题
改进巨灾建模以满足业务中断保险需求
DOI：
10.1111/risa.12550
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
C. Huyck
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Rose;C. Huyck
虽然财产损失的巨灾（CAT）建模已经发展得很好，但业务中断（BI）建模却远远落后。原因之一是CAT模型中将财产损失转化为BI的函数关系的粗糙性质。另一个原因是，估计商业智能损失更加复杂，因为它在很大程度上取决于恢复期间公共和私人的决策，这些决策涉及通过更有效地利用剩余资源来维持业务功能并更快地恢复来减少损失的弹性策略。本文提出了一个框架，以改善BI保险需求的危险损失估计。改进数据收集，允许在公司内部的单个设施层面进行分析，可以改善设施与单个形式的复原力的有效性的匹配，例如访问库存，搬迁运营和加速维修，因此可以提高估计的准确性。然后，我们说明了差异，这可以在一个案例研究的例子，从飓风的损失。
While catastrophe (CAT) modeling of property damage is well developed, modeling of business interruption (BI) lags far behind. One reason is the crude nature of functional relationships in CAT models that translate property damage into BI. Another is that estimating BI losses is more complicated because it depends greatly on public and private decisions during recovery with respect to resilience tactics that dampen losses by using remaining resources more efficiently to maintain business function and to recover more quickly. This article proposes a framework for improving hazard loss estimation for BI insurance needs. Improved data collection that allows for analysis at the level of individual facilities within a company can improve matching the facilities with the effectiveness of individual forms of resilience, such as accessing inventories, relocating operations, and accelerating repair, and can therefore improve estimation accuracy. We then illustrate the difference this can make in a case study example of losses from a hurricane.