Considering Time-Varying Factors and Social Vulnerabilities in Performance-Based Assessment of Coastal Communities Exposed to Hurricanes
Considering Time-Varying Factors and Social Vulnerabilities in Performance-Based Assessment of Coastal Communities Exposed to Hurricanes
复制标题
在对遭受飓风影响的沿海社区进行基于绩效的评估时考虑时变因素和社会脆弱性
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)st.1943-541x.0003400
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Padgett, Jamie E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
González-Dueñas, Catalina;Padgett, Jamie E.
气候变化、人口动态、已建基础设施老化及其日益复杂性逐渐增加了世界各地沿海社区的脆弱性。在许多重要的沿海基础设施中，沿海住宅建筑群在过去的风暴和飓风事件中表现出严重的脆弱性。除了这些飓风事件对建筑环境的最初影响外，沿海社区甚至在登陆后数年内也难以恢复。此外，最初的冲击和恢复阶段并不是均衡地影响到所有人口阶层，而且往往暴露出社会脆弱性和备灾、救灾和灾后恢复方面的不平等现象。本研究探讨和扩展了基于性能的海岸工程（PBCE）框架，允许考虑时变方面的危害，折旧，老化或恶化的沿海结构和基础设施系统，通过应用它来评估未来的性能和恢复的住宅结构的投资组合受到浪涌和波浪荷载。以德克萨斯州加尔维斯顿的住宅建筑存量为例，利用贝叶斯网络框架对2030年和2050年的不确定性损害和随后的恢复进行了评估，并得出了与代表性社会脆弱性因素的相关性。对直接损害与社会脆弱性因素之间以及恢复指数与风暴登陆后长达六年的社会脆弱性因素之间的相关性进行了分析，以揭示风暴对社区不同部门短期和长期影响的潜在差异。结果表明，不断变化的气候条件加剧了建筑存量和相关住房恢复失败的可能性。此外，短期和长期的相关性表明，老年人和妇女在未来的飓风事件中可能面临最大的风险。在绩效评估框架中纳入多结构系统和时变因素对于为复原力和适应工程模型提供信息非常重要，特别是当慢性灾害、人口增长和资产价值增加的影响预计将在未来增长时。该方法和案例研究还提供了有用的工具，为规划和决策、复原力评估提供信息，并促进沿海地区的恢复工作，同时考虑到灾害对弱势群体的影响。
Climate change, population dynamics, the aging of built infrastructure, and their growing complexity have gradually increased the vulnerability of coastal communities around the world. Among the many critical coastal infrastructures, the residential coastal building stock has exhibited significant vulnerabilities in past storm and hurricane events. Beyond the initial impact of these hurricane events on the built environment, coastal communities struggle to recover even years after landfall. Moreover, the initial shock as well as the recovery phase do not evenly affect all sectors of the population and frequently uncover social vulnerabilities and inequalities in the preparedness, response, and recovery from disasters. This study explores and expands a performance-based coastal engineering (PBCE) framework that allows for consideration of time-varying aspects of the hazard, depreciation, and aging or deterioration of coastal structures and infrastructure systems by applying it to evaluate the future performance and recovery of a portfolio of residential structures subjected to surge and wave loads. Using the residential building stock of Galveston, Texas as a case study, a Bayesian network framework is leveraged to evaluate the uncertain damage and subsequent recovery of the portfolio for the years 2030 and 2050, and correlations with representative social vulnerability factors are drawn. The correlation analysis between immediate damage and social vulnerability factors, as well as between the recovery index and social vulnerability factors up to six years following the storm landfall, is pursued to expose potential disparities in the impact of the storm to different sectors of the community in the short- and long-term. Results show that changing climate conditions exacerbate the probability of failure of the building stock and associated housing recovery. Also, the correlations in the short- and long-terms show that the elderly and women might be most at risk in future hurricane events. The incorporation of multi-structure systems and time-varying factors in the performance assessment framework is of great importance to inform resilience and adaptation engineering models, in particular, when the effects of chronic hazards, a growing population, and increases in asset values are expected to grow in the future. The methodology and case study also provide useful tools to inform planning and decision-making, resilience assessment, and facilitate recovery efforts in coastal settings while accounting for the impact of the hazard on vulnerable populations.