Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers
Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers
复制标题
对赌徒谬误和热手谬误感到惊讶吗？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2627354
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Adam Sanjurjo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Miller;Adam Sanjurjo
*Econometrica Link*：https://www.econometricsociety.org/publications/econometrica/2018/11/01/surprised-hot-hand-fallacy-truth-law-small-numbers *Full Bibliographic Reference*：米勒，J. B.，& Sanjurjo，A.（2018年）。对热手谬误感到惊讶吗？小数定律中的一个真理。Econometrica，Vol. 86，No.6，pp. 2019-2047 *这种条纹选择偏差的大小一般会随着序列变长而减小，但条纹长度会增加，并且对于经验工作中经常使用的序列长度范围仍然很大。我们观察到，在有影响力的热手谬误文献的规范研究，沿着复制，容易受到偏见。在纠正了偏见之后，我们发现经典研究的长期结论被颠倒了。
*Econometrica Link*: https://www.econometricsociety.org/publications/econometrica/2018/11/01/surprised-hot-hand-fallacy-truth-law-small-numbers *Full Bibliographic Reference*: Miller, J. B., & Sanjurjo, A. (2018). Surprised by the hot hand fallacy? A truth in the law of small numbers. Econometrica, Vol. 86, No.6, pp. 2019–2047 ********************************************* We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The magnitude of this streak selection bias generally decreases as the sequence gets longer, but increases in streak length, and remains substantial for a range of sequence lengths often used in empirical work. We observe that the canonical study in the influential hot hand fallacy literature, along with replications, are vulnerable to the bias. Upon correcting for the bias we find that the long-standing conclusions of the canonical study are reversed.