A Decision-theory Approach to Cost-effective Population Supplementation for Imperiled Species
A Decision-theory Approach to Cost-effective Population Supplementation for Imperiled Species
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濒危物种经济有效的种群补充的决策理论方法
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.06.028
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
P. Govindarajulu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Kissel;W. Palen;P. Govindarajulu
尽管对濒危物种进行了数十年的管理，但成功恢复的却很少。缩小这一差距的一种选择是使用决策分析来权衡替代恢复行动。通过决策分析，我们评估了减少濒临灭绝的俄勒冈斑蛙（Ranapretiosa）灭绝风险的恢复行动和财务成本之间的权衡。我们通过圈养繁殖或先发性模拟种群补充，并将后代作为当年的幼虫或幼崽释放到野外。我们对恢复情景的有效性进行了排名，以一系列决策点的最高点为代表，以将 10 年灭绝风险降低到 10% 以下，同时最大限度地降低财务成本。我们探讨了灭绝风险目标、濒危种群规模和圈养雌性繁殖产出方面的排名变化。我们的首要途径是补充圈养幼虫，每花费 10 万美元，灭绝风险就会降低 3%。总的来说，用圈养繁殖的幼虫进行补充可以最大程度地降低每投资一美元的灭绝风险。此外，我们发现增加支出并不总是能成比例地降低灭绝风险。这些结果通过考虑恢复濒危物种的生物和经济功效，将定量保护和应用保护联系起来。
Despite decades of managing endangered species, few have been successfully recovered. One option to reduce this gap is to use decision analysis to weigh alternative recovery actions. Using decision analysis, we evaluated tradeoffs between recovery actions to reduce extinction risk and financial cost for the imperiled Oregon spotted frog (Ranapretiosa). We simulated population supplementation via captive breeding or head-starting, and releasing offspring into the wild as larvae or young of the year. We ranked the efficacy of recovery scenarios, represented by a culmination of a series of decision points, to reduce the 10-year extinction risk below 10% while minimizing financial costs. We explored how rankings varied with respect to the extinction risk target, the endangered population size, and the reproductive output captive females. Our top-ranked pathway was to supplement with captive bred larvae, resulting in a 3% reduction in extinction risk for every $100,000 spent. In general, supplementing with captive bred larvae resulted in the biggest reduction in extinction risk per dollar invested. Additionally, we found that increasing spending does not always result in a proportional reduction in extinction risk. These results link quantitative and applied conservation by considering the biological and economic efficacy to recover endangered species.