An order of magnitude: How a detailed, real-data-based return flow analysis identified large discrepancies in modeled water consumption volumes for Finland
An order of magnitude: How a detailed, real-data-based return flow analysis identified large discrepancies in modeled water consumption volumes for Finland
复制标题
一个数量级：详细的、基于真实数据的回流分析如何识别芬兰模拟用水量的巨大差异
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105835
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
J. Salminen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Weckström;Veera A. Örmä;J. Salminen
水资源的可持续开发是一项重要的全球性挑战，已经采用了几种方法来研究水在经济体中的流动。然而，所有方法的适用性、准确性和可靠性通常都受到缺乏真实的数据的限制，特别是在分析从经济返回环境的水流量和估算消耗性用水量时。文献中报告的特定部门的用水量主要是基于未知不确定性的模拟数字。在本文中，我们将展示如何编制一个可靠的和分类的国家回水流量会计，包括特定行业的消费率，以及如何评估和记录所产生的数据的质量。采用的回流分析数据质量评估协议是一个透明的系统，将行业特定数据的代表性分为质量类别，从而可以估计数据的可靠性和确定重要的发展领域。此外，我们比较了基于真实数据的会计的结果，在现有的文献和广泛应用的建模工具中的模型化的数字，并显示差异是非常大的。我们还分析了这些差异背后的潜在原因。这项研究清楚地表明，在水核算和各种水足迹研究中需要真实的数据。建议将基于真实的数据的水资源利用率作为衡量国民经济对水资源压力的指标。我们还建议，在小规模的区域研究中，可以考虑将水消费率作为一个额外的指标，在这些研究中，可以获得关于回流和水资源的具体案例和可靠数据。
Sustainable exploitation of water resources is an essential global challenge and several approaches have been applied for studying water flows through economies. However, the applicability, accuracy, and reliability of all approaches is generally constrained by the lack of real data, especially when analyzing the return water flows from the economy back into the environment and when estimating the volume of consumptive water use. Sector-specific water consumption volumes reported in the literature are mainly based on modeled figures of unknown uncertainty. In this paper we demonstrate how a reliable and disaggregated national return water flow accountancy, including industry-specific consumption rates, can be compiled, and how the quality of the produced data can be assessed and documented. The introduced protocol for data quality assessment in return flow analysis is a transparent system that classifies industry-specific data representativeness into quality categories and hence allows the estimation of data reliability and the identification of important development areas. Furthermore, we compare the results of the real-data-based accountancy to modeled figures in the existing literature and widely applied modeling tools, and show that the differences are extremely large. We also analyze the potential reasons behind these differences. This study clearly illustrates the need for real data in water accountings and in various water footprint studies. We propose that water use rates based on real data should be used as an indicator of pressures exerted on water resources by national economies. We furthermore suggest that water consumption rates could be considered as an additional indicator in small-scale regional studies, where case-specific, reliable data on return flows and water resources are available.