Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants.
Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants.
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DOI：
10.1111/nph.19138
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发表时间：
2023-07
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Martínez‐Vilalta;Raúl García‐Valdés;A. Jump;Albert Vilà‐Cabrera;Maurizio Mencuccini
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作者：
J. Martínez‐Vilalta;Raúl García‐Valdés;A. Jump;Albert Vilà‐Cabrera;Maurizio Mencuccini
功能性状提供了一个很有前途的途径，以改善气候变化下的物种范围变化的预测，这将需要更温暖，往往更干燥的条件。尽管将性状与植物性能和范围变化联系起来的概念基础似乎很坚实，但个体性状的预测能力仍然普遍较低。在这篇评论中，我们解决这个明显的矛盾，强调木本植物和性状与干旱反应在物种的后缘的例子。低预测能力不仅反映了范围动态往往是复杂的和多因素的，以及在确定相关性状和有限的数据可用性的不确定性，而且还表明性状效应是规模和背景依赖性。后者是性状之间（如补偿效应）以及性状与环境之间（如暴露）复杂相互作用的结果，最终决定了持久性和定殖能力。面对这种复杂性，一个更平衡的覆盖面所涉及的主要功能方面（压力耐受性，资源利用，再生和传播）是必要的，和建模方法必须制定明确的帐户：性状协调层次背景下，性状变异的空间和时间及其与曝光的关系;和生物相互作用的影响，在生态社区的背景下。
Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.