IMPACT OF VACCINE ARRIVAL ON THE OPTIMAL CONTROL OF A NEWLY EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE: A THEORETICAL STUDY
IMPACT OF VACCINE ARRIVAL ON THE OPTIMAL CONTROL OF A NEWLY EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE: A THEORETICAL STUDY
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DOI：
10.3934/mbe.2012.9.539
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Messina, Eleonora
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Buonomo, Bruno;Messina, Eleonora
当一种新出现的人类传染病在宿主人群中传播时，公共卫生当局可能必须在并非所有干预工具都现成的情况下开始面对疫情并规划干预运动。在这种情况下，寻找最佳干预策略以尽量减少疾病负担和干预成本的问题可以通过考虑多种干预制度来解决。在本文中，我们考虑了这样一种情况，即当局可能在运动开始时最初只依赖于非药物干预，因为知道在外生和已知的切换时间，疫苗将在稍后可用。我们使用有限时间范围内的两阶段最优控制问题来分析整个活动期间的最优干预策略，并评估新干预工具对活动前一阶段的影响。我们得到了两个连通的最优控制问题的最优性系统，并通过数值模拟给出了其解的轮廓。
When a newly emerging human infectious disease spreads through a host population, it may be that public health authorities must begin facing the outbreaks and planning an intervention campaign when not all intervention tools are readily available. In such cases, the problem of finding optimal intervention strategies to minimize both the disease burden and the intervention costs may be addressed by considering multiple intervention regimes. In this paper, we consider the scenario in which authorities may rely initially only on non-pharmaceutical interventions at the beginning of the campaign, knowing that a vaccine will later be available, at an exogenous and known switching time. We use a two-stage optimal control problem over a finite time horizon to analyze the optimal intervention strategies during the whole campaign, and to assess the effects of the new intervention tool on the preceding stage of the campaign. We obtain the optimality systems of two connected optimal control problems, and show the solution profiles through numerical simulations.