Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market
Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market
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DOI：
10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol31-no2-4
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发表时间：
2010-04
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影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
L. Kilian
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文献类型：
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作者：
L. Kilian
在讨论能源价格上涨的影响时，美国汽油价格与全球市场原油价格之间的区别常常被忽视。本文明确了这两个市场的需求和供给冲击之间的关系。以最近提出的全球原油市场结构性 VAR 模型为基础，探讨了全球原油市场和美国车用汽油市场的联合 VAR 模型的影响。结果表明，在评估汽油价格和汽油消费的反应时，了解给定汽油价格冲击的根源至关重要，因为每次需求和供给冲击都与不同幅度、模式和持续时间的反应相关。本文评估了这些冲击在解释美国汽油价格和消费增长变化方面的总体重要性，以及它们对 2002 年以来美国汽油价格演变的相对贡献。
The distinction between the price of gasoline in the U.S. and the price of crude oil in global markets is often ignored in discussions of the impact of higher energy prices. This article makes explicit the relationship between demand and supply shocks in these two markets. Building on a recently proposed structural VAR model of the global crude oil market, it explores the implications of a joint VAR model of the global market for crude oil and the U.S. market for motor gasoline. It is shown that it is essential to understand the origins of a given gasoline price shock, when assessing the responses of the price of gasoline and of gasoline consumption, since each demand and supply shock is associated with responses of different magnitude, pattern and persistence. The article assesses the overall importance of these shocks in explaining the variation in U.S. gasoline prices and consumption growth, as well as their relative contribution to the evolution of U.S. gasoline prices since 2002.