Variance and the Value of Information
Variance and the Value of Information
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DOI：
10.1086/284969
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发表时间：
1989-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Stephens
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Stephens
提出了一种简单的近似信息值的方法。这一近似表明，在决定信息价值时，有两种量是重要的：(1)如果决策者知道它所面临的资源的子类型(或状态)，将选择的最优行为；(2)与这些子类型最优子类型的微小偏差的成本。我证明了信息的价值大约等于偏离最优子类型的小偏差的平均成本与最优行为的修正分布的方差的乘积。这有助于解决经济学的结果与行为生态学的结果之间的冲突，前者表明信息价值不随子类型的方差增加而增加，后者表明当子类型的方差最大时，在“常规”模型中加入不完全信息的效果最大。只要子类型的方差增加导致子类型Optima的方差增加，这里就不存在冲突，这是经常发生的情况。我讨论了问题回报结构的变化如何改变信息的价值。概述了计算注意到部分信息性线索的价值的过程。
A simple way to approximate the value of information is proposed. This approximation suggests that two kinds of quantities are important in determining the value of information: (1) the optimal behaviors that would be chosen if the decision maker knew which subtype (or state) of the resource it faced; and (2) the costs of small deviations from these subtype optima. I show that the value of information is approximately equal to the product of the mean cost of small deviations from the subtype optima and the variance of a modified distribution of the optimal behaviors. This helps to resolve the conflict between a result from economics, which shows that the value of information does not increase with the variance of subtypes, and results from theoretical behavioral ecology, which show that the effect of adding incomplete information to "conventional" models is greatest when the variance of subtypes is greatest. There is no conflict here as long as an increase in the variance of subtypes results in an increase in the variance of subtype optima, as is often the case. I discuss how changes in a problem's payoff structure change the value of information. The procedure for calculating the value of attending to a partially informative cue is outlined.