The Informal Economy in Lebanon: Dangers and Benefits
The Informal Economy in Lebanon: Dangers and Benefits
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黎巴嫩的非正规经济：危险与好处
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
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通讯作者：
N. Rossis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Rossis
本文通过情景分析和实证分析，探讨了黎巴嫩非正规经济的有利和不利特征，以及非正规经济通过其社会经济联系对公共和国家利益的影响。非正规经济是一个多形态实体，为了确定其多方面的贡献，将其分为四个不同的变量或关键驱动因素。这四个关键驱动因素构成了非正规经济的决定性变量。
探讨这四个决定性变量的主要方法是力场分析。第一个关键驱动力是非正规汇款，因为它们在黎巴嫩的非正规经济活动中占很大比例，对国内生产总值作出了重大贡献。第二个驱动因素是腐败，因为这涉及每天大量的经济交易，在微观经济和宏观经济层面都产生巨大影响。第三个关键驱动因素是非正规就业和商业部门，因为未缴增值税以及逃避公司税和所得税导致黎巴嫩政府每年损失巨额收入。第四个也是最后一个关键驱动因素是非法网络，因为黎巴嫩是走私、毒品和人口贩运及洗钱的国际中心，与其教派选民有着密切的联系并对其产生影响。黎巴嫩目前的局势助长了一种混乱的社会经济环境，在这种环境中，不可能准确地估计非正规经济的重要性，或实际上整个经济的规模。
在这项研究中，尽可能通过从主要来源（用户/公众舆论、政府官员和学术界）收集的数据和二手材料，对所有关键驱动因素进行了独立和集体评估，以评估每个关键驱动因素对非正规经济的投入。随后，论文提供了一个有益的和有害的贡献，在黎巴嫩的非正规经济的估计，以及每个受访群体的总体看法。最后，从一个角度对主要和次要材料进行了集体评估，以采用归纳法建立一个理论模型，说明助长和维持该国非正规经济的因素。本论文可能构成的基础，为未来的分析，在黎巴嫩的非正规经济提供非常规的建议。它试图通过强调非正规经济的优点和优势，同时也认识到它对国家和社会构成的危险和挑战，提出替代非正规经济的可能性。
This thesis investigates through situational and empirical analysis the beneficial and detrimental characteristics of the informal economy in Lebanon and its impact on the public and state interest through its socio-economic associations. The informal economy is a polymorphous entity, and in order to determine its versatile contribution, has been separated into four different variables or key drivers. The four key drivers constitute the determinant variables of the informal economy.
The main method used to explore the four determinant variables is the Force Field analysis. The first key driver is informal remittances as they represent a significant fraction of the informal economic activity in Lebanon and make a major contribution to Gross Domestic Product. The second driver is corruption, as this involves massive economic transactions on a daily basis, with an enormous impact at both the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. The third key driver is the informal employment and commerce sector, as the unpaid VAT and corporate and income tax evasion results in a huge annual loss of government revenue in Lebanon. The fourth and last key driver is the illegal networks, as Lebanon represents an international hub for smuggling, drug and people trafficking and money-laundering, with strong links with, and implication for, its sectarian constituents. The current situation in Lebanon fuels the creation of a chaotic socio-economic environment where it is impossible to estimate accurately the significance of the informal economy, or indeed the size of the overall economy.
As far as possible in this research all the key drivers have been independently and collectively evaluated through the data collected from the primary sources (users/public opinion, government officials and academics) and secondary material in order to assess each key driver’s input to the informal economy. Subsequently the thesis provides an estimation of the beneficial and detrimental contribution of the informal economy in Lebanon, as well as the overall perceptions of each of the respondent groups. Lastly, the primary and secondary materials are collectively assessed from a single perspective to build, using an inductive approach, a theoretical model of the factors which fuel and perpetuate the informal economy in the country. The present thesis may constitute the foundation for future analysis of the informal economy in Lebanon by providing unconventional recommendations. It is an attempt to present the possibility of an alternative approach to the informal economy, by stressing its merits and advantages, while also recognising the dangers and challenges it poses for both the state and the society.