Observation and modeling of Hurricane Maria for damage assessment
Observation and modeling of Hurricane Maria for damage assessment
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DOI：
10.1016/j.wace.2021.100331
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发表时间：
2021-09
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
R. Pokhrel;Salvador del Cos;Juan Pablo Montoya Rincon;E. Glenn;Jorge Gonzalez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Pokhrel;Salvador del Cos;Juan Pablo Montoya Rincon;E. Glenn;Jorge Gonzalez
2017年9月，飓风玛丽亚（H-Maria）造成的人员损失在整个波多黎各岛造成超过4500人伤亡，使其成为美国历史上最具破坏性的风暴。此外，H-Maria对该岛造成了持久的影响，因为它使电网全面崩溃，使该岛完全断电十多个月。这项工作的目的是填补这一相关风暴的水文气象过程的差距，由于有限的观测数据。天气观测记录显示，月平均海面温度为30 °C，距平0.5 °C，以及4-8 m/s的低垂直风切变为H-Maria提供了燃料。模拟（WRF）风速时间序列与海洋浮标提供的有限数据非常相似，该岛南部海岸的模拟和观测峰值风速为30米/秒。模拟的总降雨量在岛中心达到峰值762毫米（观测值为965毫米），并与飓风后国家气象局（NWS）的降雨量进行了验证，标准化均方根误差（RMSE）为0.2。地形的影响进行了模拟，反映了在高海拔地区的降雨增强在中央山脉的岛屿。作为损害评估的一个例子，作为风速和土壤饱和度的函数的电力塔的故障的风险模拟使用统计模型为整个岛屿，这导致在西北部和岛的中心故障的风险较高。这些经过验证的风暴结果也可以用作其他分析的输入，例如水文模型，以确定洪水风险的地理位置。
The human loss due to Hurricane Maria (H-Maria) in the month of September of 2017 was quantified to be more than 4500 casualties in the entire island of Puerto Rico, making it the most devastating storm in US history. Besides, H-Maria left a lasting impact on the Island as it brought to full collapse the electrical power grid rendering the Island entirely out of power for more than ten months. The aim of this work is to fill the gap of the hydro-meteorological processes of this relevant storm due to the limited observational data available. The synoptic observational record shows that the monthly average Sea Surface Temperature of 30 °C, with an anomaly of 0.5 °C as well as low vertical wind shear of 4–8 m/s fueled H-Maria. Simulated (WRF) time series of wind speed is in close resemblance compared with the limited data available from ocean buoys with a simulated and observed peak wind speed of 30 m/s on the southern coast of the Island. The total rainfall for the event was simulated to peak at 762 mm (observed 965 mm) at the center of the Island and was validated with post-hurricane National Weather Service (NWS) rainfall with a Normalized Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.2. The orographic effects are simulated, reflecting enhancement of the rainfall at high altitudes in the central mountains of the Island. As an example of damage assessment, the risk of failure of the electrical power towers as a function of wind speed and soil saturation is simulated using statistical models for the entire Island, which results in higher risks of failure at the Northwest and center of the Island. These validated results of the storm can also be used as an input for other analysis such as hydrological models to geo-locate regions for risks due to flooding.