Delivering on the Sustainable Development Goals through long-term infrastructure planning
Delivering on the Sustainable Development Goals through long-term infrastructure planning
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101975
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发表时间：
2019-11-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Hall, Jim W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adshead, Daniel;Thacker, Scott;Hall, Jim W.
基础设施系统通过提供一系列基本服务，对发展产生深远影响。在全球基础设施投资不断增加之际，有必要支持从业人员做出知情选择，以便在实现可持续发展目标方面取得进展。本分析以《2030年可持续发展议程》（SDG）为框架，构建基础设施决策和权衡，开发了一个绩效指标体系，评估基础设施投资和政策组合的潜在发展影响。我们开发指标来评估与基础设施相关的目标的性能。然后，我们将这些指标嵌入到一个系统模型中，该模型可以量化未来的基础设施需求，并评估有助于满足这些需求的基础设施投资和政策组合。这些方法被应用于小岛屿国家库拉考，展示了通过在能源、水、废水和固体废物部门采取跨部门基础设施投资和政策的战略来实现可持续发展目标的潜力。面对日益增长的基础设施服务需求，我们发现，在基础设施供需方面无所作为将导致到2030年这些目标的平均可持续发展目标实现率下降28%。我们汇集了一系列干预措施，为这四个部门提供基础设施服务，从而实现与基础设施直接相关的19个可持续发展目标。这些干预措施意味着在服务提供方面存在差距的地方扩大基础设施，到2030年，水部门的基础设施将比目前的能力增加10%，废物部门的基础设施将增加368%。实现可持续发展目标并不一定意味着更多的基础设施：在能源领域，可持续政策意味着需求从目前水平减少32%。近50%的评估目标需要在一个以上的部门进行干预，强调了基础设施系统的相互依赖性。该分析通过对替代情景预测的基础设施需求进行建模，解决了围绕岛上居民人口和旅游业增长的主要驱动因素的未来不确定性。四个部门的平均需求从-14%（低）到+5%（高）不等，与中等预测相比。该分析提供了利用基础设施实现可持续发展目标的实用方法的第一步，使用定量指标来支持有效的决策。
Through the provision of a range of essential services, infrastructure systems profoundly influence development. At a time of increasing global investment in infrastructure, there is a need to support practitioners in making informed choices in order to achieve progress toward sustainable development objectives. Using the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (the SDGs) as a framework to structure infrastructure decision-making and trade-offs, this analysis develops a performance indicator system that assesses the potential development implications of a portfolio of infrastructure investments and policies. We develop metrics to assess the performance of infrastructure-linked targets. We then embed these metrics in a systems model that allows for the quantification of future infrastructure needs and the assessment of portfolios of infrastructure investments and policies that contribute to meeting these needs. These methods are applied to the small-island country of Curacao, demonstrating the potential for meeting the SDGs through adoption of strategies of cross-sectoral infrastructure investments and policies in the energy, water, wastewater and solid waste sectors. In the face of growing demands for infrastructure services, we find that inaction with regard to infrastructure supply and demand will lead to a 28% decrease in average SDG achievement across these targets by 2030. We assemble a portfolio of interventions that provide infrastructure services across these four sectors that enable achievement of 19 SDG targets directly linked to infrastructure. These interventions imply scaling up of infrastructure where there are gaps in service provision, ranging from an overall 10% increase in the water sector to a 368% increase in waste sector infrastructure from current capacities by 2030. Achieving the SDGs does not necessarily imply more infrastructure: in the energy sector the sustainable policy implies demand reductions of 32% from current levels. Nearly 50% of the assessed targets require intervention in more than one sector, emphasising the interdependent nature of the infrastructure system. The analysis addresses future uncertainties around the key drivers of residential population and tourism growth on the island by modelling infrastructure needs for alternate scenario projections. Averaged across the four sectors, these needs range from -14% (low) to +5% (high) in relation to the moderate projection. The analysis provides the first step towards a practical means of utilising infrastructure to deliver the SDGs, using quantitative indicators to underpin effective decision-making.