A Modeling Framework for Optimal Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase Decisions in Retirement Planning
A Modeling Framework for Optimal Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase Decisions in Retirement Planning
复制标题
退休计划中最佳长期护理保险购买决策的建模框架
DOI：
10.1023/b:hcms.0000020650.16096.23
复制
发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Lepeng Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aparna Gupta;Lepeng Li
退休生活中获得长期护理（LTC）的需求水平和成本要求对其进行规划是退休计划的组成部分。本文将退休计划分为退休前和退休后两个阶段。基于健康演化、财富演化、长期养老保险保费和覆盖范围以及长期养老保险成本结构四个相互关联的模型，构建了退休前阶段长期养老保险最优购买决策框架。通过权衡退休后LTC成本与LTC保费和覆盖率之间的关系，得出最优决策。双向分支模型用于模拟随机健康事件和资产收益。所得到的优化问题被表述为一个动态规划问题。我们比较了两种保险购买情景下的最优决策：一种假设保险是永久购买的，另一种假设保险可以购买、放弃和重新购买。对退休年龄进行敏感性分析。
The level of need and costs of obtaining long-term care (LTC) during retired life require that planning for it is an integral part of retirement planning. In this paper, we divide retirement planning into two phases, pre-retirement and post-retirement. On the basis of four interrelated models for health evolution, wealth evolution, LTC insurance premium and coverage, and LTC cost structure, a framework for optimal LTC insurance purchase decisions in the pre-retirement phase is developed. Optimal decisions are obtained by developing a trade-off between post-retirement LTC costs and LTC insurance premiums and coverage. Two-way branching models are used to model stochastic health events and asset returns. The resulting optimization problem is formulated as a dynamic programming problem. We compare the optimal decision under two insurance purchase scenarios: one assumes that insurance is purchased for good and other assumes it may be purchased, relinquished and re-purchased. Sensitivity analysis is performed for the retirement age.