Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty
Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty
复制标题
不确定性下分布式发电的投资与升级
DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2008.08.007
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
K. Maribu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Siddiqui;K. Maribu
全球电力行业的持续放松管制正在激励微电网通过热交换器（HX）使用小规模分布式发电（DG）和热电联产（CHP）应用，以满足当地的能源负荷。虽然DG的纯电力效率低于中央站生产，但相对较高的费率和热电联产应用的潜力增加了现场发电的吸引力。然而，考虑安装燃气DG的微电网必须意识到天然气价格的不确定性。通过真实的期权来处理不确定性增加了投资机会的价值，然后推迟了采用决策，因为行使投资期权的机会成本也增加了。在本文中，我们从微电网的角度出发，可以以连续的方式进行DG容量和HX投资，以减少天然气价格波动带来的风险。特别是，随着HX的可用性，微电网面临着减少天然气价格风险和最大限度地节省成本之间的权衡。通过改变波动性参数，我们发现，微电网更喜欢一个直接的投资策略，为低水平的波动性和顺序的波动性较高的水平。
The ongoing deregulation of electricity industries worldwide is providing incentives for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heat exchangers (HXs) to meet local energy loads. Although the electric-only efficiency of DG is lower than that of central-station production, relatively high tariff rates and the potential for CHP applications increase the attraction of on-site generation. Nevertheless, a microgrid contemplating the installation of gas-fired DG has to be aware of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treatment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of the investment opportunity, which then delays the adoption decision as the opportunity cost of exercising the investment option increases as well. In this paper, we take the perspective of a microgrid that can proceed in a sequential manner with DG capacity and HX investment in order to reduce its exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. In particular, with the availability of the HX, the microgrid faces a tradeoff between reducing its exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its cost savings. By varying the volatility parameter, we find that the microgrid prefers a direct investment strategy for low levels of volatility and a sequential one for higher levels of volatility.