Long memory of rivers from spatial aggregation
Long memory of rivers from spatial aggregation
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DOI：
10.1029/2006wr005721
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发表时间：
2007-01-19
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Mudelsee, Manfred
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mudelsee, Manfred
[1]长记忆是一种水文特性，它可能导致一条河流长期干旱或极端洪水在时间上聚集。对来自欧洲、美洲和非洲的6条河流的28个长(长达145年)的连续仪器径流序列的分析表明，这种影响在下游增加。模拟定性地再现了这种增长，并表明河网汇聚了短期记忆降水，并将其转化为长期记忆径流。鉴于气候和水文循环的预测变化，这些研究结果表明，可以预测个别河流干旱或洪水风险的十年尺度变化，下游具有更高的可预测性。空间聚集也可能解释了长记忆在其他网络中的出现，比如大脑或由计算机形成的网络。
[1] Long memory is a hydrological property that can lead to prolonged droughts or the temporal clustering of extreme floods in a river. Analyses of 28 long (up to 145 years), continuous instrumental runoff series from six European, American, and African rivers reveal that this effect increases downstream. Simulations reproduce the increase qualitatively and show that a river network aggregates short-memory precipitation and converts it into long-memory runoff. In view of projected changes in climate and the hydrological cycle, these findings show that decadal-scale variations in drought or flood risk can be predicted for individual rivers, with higher predictability downstream. Spatial aggregation may also explain the emergence of long memory in other networks, such as the brain or those formed by computers.