Dynamic asset allocation and consumption under inflation inequality: The impacts of inflation experiences and expectations

Dynamic asset allocation and consumption under inflation inequality: The impacts of inflation experiences and expectations
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通货膨胀不平等下的动态资产配置和消费:通货膨胀经历和预期的影响

DOI:
10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.013
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发表时间:
2017-02
期刊:
Economic Modeling
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Zhiwei Xu
Zhiwei Xu
中科院分区:
其他
文献类型:
--
作者:
Shaoyu Li;Wei Lijia;Zhiwei Xu

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消费模式的差异以及商品和服务价格上涨的差异导致家庭的不平等通货膨胀经历(称为通货膨胀不平等)。这些差异会导致通胀预期的分歧,最终对家庭的资产配置和消费决策产生重大影响。本文的资产配置模型解释了通货膨胀经验如何通过相应的通货膨胀预期影响居民的投资和消费,而通货膨胀预期的特征在于长期预期通货膨胀、预期通货膨胀的影响系数以及预期通货膨胀与风险收益的相关性。利用中国经济数据的实证结果表明,收入差距、地区差距、不同的通货膨胀测度和经济部门支出差异会导致通货膨胀预期的显著差异。使用估计的系数,校准结果具有政策含义,家庭需要更多的融资渠道来抵御通货膨胀,特别是在农村地区和原材料部门。
Differences in spending patterns and in price increases across goods and services lead to the unequal inflation experiences of households (called inflation inequality). These differences then cause disagreements in inflation expectations and eventually have a significant effect on households’ asset allocation and consumption decisions. The asset allocation model in this paper explains how inflation experiences affect household investment and consumption through corresponding inflation expectations, which are characterized by long-term expected inflation, the impact coefficient of the expected inflation and the correlation between expected inflation and the risky return. Using China's economic data, the empirical results show that significant differences in inflation expectation arise from income gap, regional inequality, different inflation measures and economic sector spending differences. Using the estimated coefficients, the calibration results have policy implications that households need more financing channels to resist inflation, especially in rural areas and in the raw material sector.
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