Prediction of Crime Occurrence using Information Propagation Model and Gaussian Process
Prediction of Crime Occurrence using Information Propagation Model and Gaussian Process
复制标题
使用信息传播模型和高斯过程预测犯罪发生
DOI：
10.1109/asiajcis.2019.000-2
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kilho Shin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shusuke Morimoto;Hajime Kawamukai;Kilho Shin
预测和预防犯罪一直是公共安全领域关注的主要问题之一。由于现有数据和分析工具的出现，犯罪预测的研究近年来受到越来越多的关注。从本质上讲，目前的技术要么是基于对离散犯罪事件地点的分析，要么是基于汇总犯罪数据的理论。然而，很难根据对过去犯罪率的直接解释来估计未来犯罪的可能性。因此，现有的方法不能很好地适应不同的环境和犯罪发生的趋势。目前，还没有一种标准方法可以同时解决不同犯罪数据集带来的所有挑战。一个更普遍的解决办法，能够应付环境的变化和犯罪发生的多样性，将是非常可取的。在本文中，我们提出了一种新的犯罪预测方法，并建立了一个足够灵活的模型，以适用于不同的情况。为了实现我们的目标，我们建立了一个包含信息熵概念的信息传播模型。该研究有助于安全组织主动应对犯罪事件，并帮助当地决策者预防或管理犯罪风险，最终改善公共安全和安全。
Prediction and prevention of crime have long been one of the main concerns of public security and safety. Due to the emergence of available data and analytic tools, research for crime prediction has been attracting more attention recently. In essence, the current techniques are based on either the analysis of discrete crime event locations or the theory with aggregated crime data. However, it is difficult to estimate the probability of future crimes based on the direct interpretation of the past crime rate. Therefore, existing methods are not good at adapting to different environment and trends of crime occurrence. Currently, there is no standard method that can simultaneously address all challenges posed by different crime data sets. A more universal solution, which can cope with the changes in the environment and the diversity of crime occurrence would be highly desirable. In this paper, we present a novel approach to crime prediction and establishes a model flexible enough to apply to different circumstances. To achieve our goal, we build an information propagation model which incorporates a concept of information entropy. This research helps security organizations to address or react to crime occurrence proactively and helps local policy-makers to prevent or manage crime risks, which would eventually improve public security and safety.