Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at older ages
Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at older ages
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DOI：
10.2307/3004009
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发表时间：
1998-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Wilmoth, JR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Horiuchi, S;Wilmoth, JR
死亡率随着年龄的增长而增加的速度在很高的时候往往会减慢。对这种减速的一种解释是健康个体选择性地存活到老年。瑞典和日本的死亡率数据总体上与该假设的三个预测相符：（1）大多数主要死亡原因的减少； (2) 由于更多“选择性”原因，从年轻时开始减速； (3)随着死亡率水平的下降，人口老龄化减速。用于说明第三个预测的参数模型依赖于衰老死亡率和背景死亡率之间的区别。这种二分法虽然过于简单，但有助于解释观察到的减速时间。
The rate of mortality increase with age tends to slow down at very old ages. One explanation proposed for this deceleration is the selective survival of healthier individuals to older ages. Data on mortality in Sweden and Japan are generally compatible with three predictions of this hypothesis: (1) decelerations for most major causes of death; (2) decelerations starting at younger ages for more "selective" causes; and (3) a shift of the deceleration to older ages with declining levels of mortality. A parametric model employed to illustrate the third prediction relies on the distinction between senescent and background mortality. This dichotomy, though simplistic, helps to explain the observed timing of the deceleration.