Diverging Responses of Tropical Andean Biomes under Future Climate Conditions
Diverging Responses of Tropical Andean Biomes under Future Climate Conditions
复制标题
未来气候条件下热带安第斯生物群落的不同反应
作者：
C. Tovar;C. Arnillas;F. Cuesta;W. Buytaert
对山区的观测和预测表明，在未来的气候条件下，山区生物群落有向上坡移动的强烈趋势。由于气候和地形的异质性，预计热带山区等生物多样性热点地区的反应将更为复杂。本研究分析了热带安第斯山脉生物群落分布的潜在变化，并确定了保护的目标区域。使用逻辑回归开发生物群落分布模型。然后将这些模型与8个全球气候模型的集合相结合，以预测安第斯生物群落的未来分布及其不确定性。我们分析了范围和海拔范围的预计变化，并确定了最容易发生变化的地区。我们的研究结果显示了对气候变化的异质性反应。虽然潮湿的生物群落表现出向上的位移的上，下边界的预期，大多数干燥的生物群落往往表现出向下的扩张。尽管预测了几个生物群落的重大损失，但预测表明，根据排放情景和时间范围，目前热带安第斯山脉总面积的74.8%至83.1%将保持稳定。预计研究区域的3.3%至7.6%将发生变化，主要是垂直结构的增加。对于其余区域（13.1%-17.4%），模型预测之间没有一致性。这些结果挑战了人们普遍认为气候变化将导致山区生物群落边界的上坡位移。相反，我们的模型预测了不同的反应，包括下坡扩张和预计保持稳定的大面积。最后，预计将发生变化的地区有很大一部分已经受到土地使用变化的影响，这对管理有重要影响。这一点，加上全面的不确定性分析，将有助于为热带安第斯山脉的保护战略提供信息，并指导对其他热带山脉的类似评估。
Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%–17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for other tropical mountains.
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
M. Bush;Jennifer A. Hanselman;W. Gosling
通讯作者：
M. Bush;Jennifer A. Hanselman;W. Gosling