Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK
Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK
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DOI：
10.1007/s10658-010-9739-1
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发表时间：
2011-05-01
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Fitt, Bruce D. L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Madgwick, James W.;West, Jon S.;Fitt, Bruce D. L.
气候变化将影响农作物的生长和侵袭农作物的疾病，但很少有人研究气候变化对农作物生长的影响如何影响疾病流行。本文研究了气候变化对小麦开花日期的影响将如何影响英国大陆耕地的镰刀菌穗疫病。小麦生长模型用于预测开花日期，并且开发了基于天气的模型用于预测英国镰孢菌穗疫病的发病率。使用针对基线（1960-1990 年）情景以及 2020 年代和 2050 年代二氧化碳高排放和低排放情况为英国耕地 14 个地点生成的每日天气数据，用于预测每种气候变化情景下每个地点的小麦开花日期和镰刀菌穗疫病发病率。镰刀菌穗疫病的发病率与开花期间的降雨量和前六周的温度有关。据预测，到 2050 年代，随着气候变化，小麦花期将提前，镰刀菌穗疫病疫情将更加严重，特别是在英格兰南部。这些预测是通过结合不同气候变化情景下的作物和疾病模型而做出的，表明加强对镰刀菌穗疫病的控制应成为行业和政府适应气候变化战略以确保粮食安全的高度优先事项。
Climate change will affect both growth of agricultural crops and diseases that attack them but there has been little work to study how its impacts on crop growth influence impacts on disease epidemics. This paper investigates how impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis date will influence impacts on fusarium ear blight in UK mainland arable areas. A wheat growth model was used for projections of anthesis dates, and a weather-based model was developed for use in projections of incidence of fusarium ear blight in the UK. Daily weather data, generated for 14 sites in arable areas of the UK for a baseline (1960-1990) scenario and for high and low CO2 emissions in the 2020s and 2050s, were used to project wheat anthesis dates and fusarium ear blight incidence for each site for each climate change scenario. Incidence of fusarium ear blight was related to rainfall during anthesis and temperature during the preceding 6 weeks. It was projected that, with climate change, wheat anthesis dates will be earlier and fusarium ear blight epidemics will be more severe, especially in southern England, by the 2050s. These projections, made by combining crop and disease models for different climate change scenarios, suggest that improved control of fusarium ear blight should be a high priority in industry and government strategies for adaptation to climate change to ensure food security.