Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Traffic: Testing the Gravity and Intervening Opportunity Models as Models of Destination Choice in Hurricane Evacuation
Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Traffic: Testing the Gravity and Intervening Opportunity Models as Models of Destination Choice in Hurricane Evacuation
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飓风疏散交通建模：测试重力和干预机会模型作为飓风疏散目的地选择的模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
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通讯作者：
Bin Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Wilmot;N. Modali;Bin Chen
该测试是通过以下方式进行的：对飓风弗洛伊德过后来自南卡罗来纳州的部分疏散数据进行模型估计，然后观察模型在剩余数据上再现县级目的地选择的效果如何。测试表明，这些模型在预测剩余数据的目的地选择时具有相似的准确性。重力模型预测了110个不同县的朋友或亲戚的疏散，所有目的地的平均误差为1.55，而干预机会模型（IOM）的相应误差为1.64。对于疏散到70个不同县的酒店或汽车旅馆，重力模型给出的平均误差为1.48，IOM的平均误差为1.50。然而，当IOM被修改，使机会的顺序敏感的疏散方向相对于风暴的路径，修改后的IOM表现略好于重力模型，平均误差为1.55和1.43疏散到朋友和亲戚，汽车旅馆和酒店，分别。本研究还通过将根据南卡罗来纳州飓风弗洛伊德数据估算的模型应用于路易斯安那州飓风安德鲁的数据，检验了重力模型对亲友疏散的可移植性。通过比较两个数据集的行程长度频率分布，每个数据集上估计的模型的摩擦系数的相似性，以及本地估计模型的目的地预测的均方根误差（RMSE）的比率，转移模型的安德鲁数据的可转移性进行了测试。在95%的显着性水平下，行程长度频率图或摩擦系数集之间没有显着的统计学差异。Andrew数据的RMSE比率为0.67，表明本地估计模型的平均误差为转移模型的67%。
The test was conducted by estimating the models on a portion of evacuation data from South Carolina following Hurricane Floyd, and then observing how well the models reproduced destination choice at the county level on the remaining data. The tests showed the models predicted destination choice on the remaining data with similar accuracy. The Gravity Model predicted evacuation to friends or relatives in 110 different counties with an average error of 1.55 evacuations over all destinations, while the corresponding error for the Intervening Opportunity Model (IOM) was 1.64. For evacuation to hotels or motels in 70 different counties, the Gravity Model gave an average error of 1.48 evacuations and the IOM an average error of 1.50. However, when the IOM was modified to make the sequencing of opportunities sensitive to the direction of evacuation relative to the path of the storm, the modified IOM performed slightly better than the Gravity Model with average errors of 1.55 and 1.43 evacuations to friends and relatives, and motels and hotels, respectively. The transferability of the Gravity Model for evacuations to friends and relatives was also tested in this study by applying the model estimated on the Hurricane Floyd data in South Carolina to data from Hurricane Andrew in Louisiana. Transferability was tested by comparing the trip length frequency distributions from the two data sets, the similarity of friction factors from models estimated on each data set, and the ratio of the Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of destination predictions of a locally-estimated model to a transferred model on the Andrew data. No significant statistical difference was found between the trip length frequency diagrams or the sets of friction factors at the 95% level of significance. The ratio of RMSEs on the Andrew data was 0.67, indicating that the average error of a locally-estimated model was 67% that of the transferred model.