A spatial fuzzy logic approach to urban multi-hazard impact assessment in Concepcion, Chile
A spatial fuzzy logic approach to urban multi-hazard impact assessment in Concepcion, Chile
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.077
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发表时间：
2017-01-15
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Carvajal, Danilo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Araya-Munoz, Dahyann;Metzger, Marc J.;Carvajal, Danilo
尽管大多数城市面临一种以上的灾害，但当地规划者和决策者对灾害的风险、敏感性和空间分布的了解仍然有限。我们研究了智利孔塞普西翁大都市区（CMA）的多种危害的影响。开发了一种基于空间模糊逻辑建模的灵活方法，以探讨与天气有关的灾害的影响，包括沿海洪水、河流洪水、缺水、热应力和野火。对32项指标进行了标准化，然后通过逐步方法将其汇总为多灾害影响指数。我们发现，在CMA的所有城市增加了他们的影响水平在1992年和2002年之间，由于更大的增加，而不是适度的敏感性下降的曝光。城市的敏感性主要是由人口年龄结构的变化驱动的。野火和缺水似乎对所有城市的影响最大。模糊建模在标准化和汇总具有不同特点的指标方面提供了高度灵活性，同时也提供了一种手段，以探讨众多指标的相互作用如何影响指数。由此产生的地图可以帮助确定指标、组成部分和危害或危害组合，这些危害对市政当局的影响最大。研究结果可用于改善和促进政策制定者和利益攸关方之间关于城市发展资源优先顺序的对话，同时也可以减少暴露和敏感性，降低对气候变化的脆弱性。所提出的方法可以适用于其他城市。(C)2016爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Even though most cities are exposed to more than one hazard, local planners and decision-makers still have a limited understanding of the exposure and sensitivity to and the spatial distribution of hazards. We examine the impact of multiple hazards in the Concepcion Metropolitan Area (CMA), Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy logic modelling was developed to explore the impact of weather-related hazards, including coastal flooding, fluvial flooding, water scarcity, heat stress, and wildfire. 32 indicators were standardised and then aggregated through a stepwise approach into a multi-hazard impact index. We find that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of impact between 1992 and 2002, due to a larger increase in the exposure rather than the modest decrease in sensitivity. Municipal sensitivity was driven mostly by changes in the population's age structure. Wild-fires and water scarcity appeared to have the largest impact on all municipalities. Fuzzy modelling offered high flexibility in the standardisation and aggregation of indicators with diverse characteristics, while also providing a means to explore how the interaction of numerous indicators influenced the index. The resulting maps can help identify indicators, components, and hazards or combinations of hazards that most influence the impact on municipalities. The results can be used to improve and promote dialogue among policy-makers and stakeholders regarding prioritisation of resources for urban development in ways that can also reduce exposure and sensitivity and lower vulnerability to climate change. The methods presented can be adapted to other cities. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.