Understanding risk: what makes a risk assessment successful?
Understanding risk: what makes a risk assessment successful?
复制标题
了解风险：风险评估成功的因素是什么？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Jongman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Murnane;A. Simpson;B. Jongman
目的
了解风险不仅仅是对风险进行建模;它需要了解构成和推动灾难风险产生的发展和社会过程。在这里，除了审查更多的技术因素，本文旨在讨论各种机构，社会和政治的考虑，必须管理的风险评估的结果，影响行动，导致减少自然灾害风险。
设计/方法/方式
本文件所述的技术方法以及体制、社会和政治考虑，是根据从涉及与评估自然灾害的风险和影响有关的各种活动的个案研究中以及从世界银行全球减灾和灾后恢复基金的活动中收集到的广泛经验提出的。
结果
风险信息为管理各部门的灾害风险提供了重要基础。在适当的时候适当地传达可靠的风险信息，可以提高认识，并引发减少风险的行动。以触发行动的方式传达这些信息需要了解风险产生的基础和驱动因素的发展和社会进程，以及更广泛的灾害风险管理（DRM）决策背景。
实际影响
在开始定量风险评估之前，应明确定义为什么需要进行评估，目前阻碍有效DRM行动的信息差距以及风险信息的最终用户。这就需要通过进行风险评估的科学家和工程师与决策者、主管部门、社区和通过评估获得的信息的其他预定用户之间的沟通来建立信任。
独创性/价值
本文总结了风险评估的技术组成部分，以及应考虑的机构，社会和政治因素，以最大限度地成功降低风险评估所定义的风险的概率。
Purpose
Understanding risk is more than just modeling risk; it requires an understanding of the development and social processes that underlie and drive the generation of disaster risk. Here, in addition to a review of more technical factors, this paper aims to discuss a variety of institutional, social and political considerations that must be managed for the results of a risk assessment to influence actions that lead to reductions in natural hazard risk.
Design/methodology/approach
The technical approaches and the institutional, social and political considerations covered in this paper are based on a wide range of experiences gleaned from case studies that touch on a variety of activities related to assessing the risks and impacts of natural hazards, and from the activities of the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery.
Findings
Risk information provides a critical foundation for managing disaster risk across a wide range of sectors. Appropriate communication of robust risk information at the right time can raise awareness and trigger action to reduce risk. Communicating this information in a way that triggers action requires an understanding of the developments and social processes that underlie and drive the generation of risk, as well as of the wider Disaster Risk Management (DRM) decision-making context.
Practical implications
Prior to the initiation of a quantitative risk assessment one should clearly define why an assessment is needed and wanted, the information gaps that currently prevent effective DRM actions and the end-users of the risk information. This requires developing trust through communication among the scientists and engineers performing the risk assessment and the decision-makers, authorities, communities and other intended users of the information developed through the assessment.
Originality/value
This paper summarizes the technical components of a risk assessment as well as the institutional, social and political considerations that should be considered to maximize the probability of successfully reducing the risk defined by a risk assessment.