Long-term impact of HPV vaccination and COVID-19 pandemic on oropharyngeal cancer incidence and burden among men in the USA: A modeling study.
Long-term impact of HPV vaccination and COVID-19 pandemic on oropharyngeal cancer incidence and burden among men in the USA: A modeling study.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.lana.2021.100143
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发表时间：
2022-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Deshmukh AA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Damgacioglu H;Sonawane K;Chhatwal J;Lairson DR;Clifford GM;Giuliano AR;Deshmukh AA
在美利坚合众国（美国），口咽癌（OPC）的发病率正在迅速上升。我们的目的是预测维持目前HPV疫苗接种率和实现80%国家（健康人）目标对OPC发病率和负担的影响。我们在当代和未来男性出生队列中建立了OPC自然史的开放队列微观模拟模型，考虑了性行为、人口增长、老龄化和群体免疫。我们使用的数据来自全国代表性数据库、50个州的癌症登记处、大型临床试验和文献。我们评估了现状情况（目前的HPV疫苗接种率保持稳定）和到2025年青少年（9-17岁）和年轻人（18-26岁）接种率改善的替代情况，以实现并保持80%的目标。主要结果是预测2009年至2100年的OPC发病率和负担。我们还评估了COVID-19大流行期间HPV疫苗摄取中断的影响。预计到2030年代中期，OPC发病率将上升，达到每10万名男性9.8（95%不确定区间[UI] 9.5 - 1.0）的年龄标准化发病率，年负担高峰为23850例（UI， 23200 - 24500例）。在目前的情况下，到2060年，人乳头瘤病毒疫苗接种可预防124,000例（UI, 117,000 - 131,000），到2080年可预防400,000例（UI, 384,000 - 416,000），到2100年可预防792,000例（UI, 763,000 - 821,000）男性OPC病例。到2100年，仅在少女、少女和男童以及青少年加青壮年中实现并保持80%的覆盖率，可预防10万例（免疫球蛋白i， 9.5万- 10.5万）、11.8万例（免疫球蛋白i， 11.3万- 12.3万）和14.2万例（免疫球蛋白i， 13.6万- 14.8万）男性口服避孕药病例。COVID-19大流行期间HPV疫苗接种的延迟恢复可能导致到2100年额外增加600例（UI, 580-620）至6200例（UI, 5940-6460）男性OPC病例，这取决于国家HPV疫苗接种覆盖率的下降和反弹的可能延迟。口咽癌负担预计将在美国男性中上升。在全国范围内努力实现人乳头瘤病毒疫苗接种率80%的目标应成为公共卫生重点。在COVID-19大流行期间迅速恢复下降的人乳头瘤病毒疫苗接种率，对于防止未来OPC负担过重也至关重要。美国国家癌症研究所和国家少数民族健康和健康差异研究所。
Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence is rising rapidly among men in the United States of America (USA). We aimed to project the impact of maintaining the current HPV vaccination uptake and achieving 80% national (Healthy People) goal on OPC incidence and burden. We developed an open-cohort micro-simulation model of OPC natural history among contemporary and future birth cohorts of men, accounting for sexual behaviors, population growth, aging, and herd immunity. We used data from nationally representative databases, cancer registries from all 50 states, large clinical trials, and literature. We evaluated the status quo scenario (the current HPV vaccination uptake remained stable) and alternative scenarios of improvements in uptake rates in adolescents (aged 9-17 years) and young adults (aged 18-26 years) by 2025 to achieve and maintain the 80% goal. The primary outcome was to project OPC incidence and burden from 2009 to 2100. We also assessed the impact of disruption in HPV vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic. OPC incidence is projected to rise until the mid-2030s, reaching the age-standardized incidence rate of 9·8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·5-10·1) per 100 000 men, with the peak annual burden of 23 850 (UI, 23 200-24 500) cases. Under the status quo scenario, HPV vaccination could prevent 124 000 (UI, 117 000-131 000) by 2060, 400 000 (UI, 384 000-416 000) by 2080, and 792 000 (UI, 763 000-821 000) by 2100 OPC cases among men. Achievement and maintenance of 80% coverage among adolescent girls only, adolescent girls and boys, and adolescents plus young adults could prevent an additional number of 100 000 (UI, 95 000-105 000), 118 000 (UI, 113 000-123 000), and 142 000 (UI, 136 000-148 000) male OPC cases by 2100. Delayed recovery of the HPV vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to 600 (UI, 580-620) to 6200 (UI, 5940-6460) additional male OPC cases by 2100, conditional on the decline in the extent of the national HPV vaccination coverage and potential delay in rebounding. Oropharyngeal cancer burden is projected to rise among men in the USA. Nationwide efforts to achieve the HPV vaccination goal of 80% coverage should be a public health priority. Rapid recovery of the declined HPV vaccination uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic is also crucial to prevent future excess OPC burden. National Cancer Institute and National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities of the USA.
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影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Kreimer, Aimee R.;Campbell, Christine M. Pierce;Lin, Hui-Yi;Fulp, William;Papenfuss, Mary R.;Abrahamsen, Martha;Hildesheim, Allan;Villa, Luisa L.;Salmeron, Jorge J.;Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo;Giuliano, Anna R.
通讯作者：
Giuliano, Anna R.
影响因子：
13.8
作者：
Sonawane K;Lin YY;Damgacioglu H;Zhu Y;Fernandez ME;Montealegre JR;Cazaban CG;Li R;Lairson DR;Lin Y;Giuliano AR;Deshmukh AA
通讯作者：
Deshmukh AA
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Daniels V;Prabhu VS;Palmer C;Samant S;Kothari S;Roberts C;Elbasha E
通讯作者：
Elbasha E
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Kraut-Becher, J. R.;Aral, S. O.
通讯作者：
Aral, S. O.
影响因子：
6.2
作者：
Kreimer, Aimee R.;Shiels, Meredith S.;Waterboer, Tim
通讯作者：
Waterboer, Tim