Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought
Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought
复制标题
DOI：
10.5194/hess-23-3233-2019
复制
发表时间：
2019-03
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
W. Rust;I. Holman;J. Bloomfield;M. Cuthbert;R. Corstanje
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Rust;I. Holman;J. Bloomfield;M. Cuthbert;R. Corstanje
抽象的。预测下一次重大干旱是全球水资源管理者的首要兴趣。估计地下水干旱的开始时间特别重要，因为人们往往认为，当地表水资源开始枯竭时，地下水资源的复原力更强。通过与振荡的海洋-大气系统的遥相关对地下水位进行可能的周期性控制，提供了一个长期预测的潜在来源。然而，大规模的气候系统和区域到地方尺度的降雨量，蒸散量（ET）和地下水之间的关系往往是复杂的和非线性的，使长期气候周期对地下水干旱的影响仍然知之甚少。此外，目前尚不清楚多年气候变化对地下水总储量的绝对贡献是否很大。这项研究评估了地下水多年变化的程度，可以用来指示在英国地下水干旱的时间。连续小波变换显示如何重复遥相关驱动的7年和16-32年的周期，在大多数地下水站点从所有英国的主要含水层可以系统地控制地下水干旱的复发，我们提供的证据表明，这些周期性的模式是由遥相关驱动。小波重建表明，北大西洋涛动的多年周期性，已知驱动北大西洋气象，包括高达40%的地下水总储量的变化。此外，大多数英国记录的干旱在近代历史上与最低阶段的7年NAO驱动的周期在地下水位，提供洞察干旱发生在一个多年度的时间尺度。通过气候遥相关进行的长期地下水干旱预测为整个北大西洋区域的干旱预测及其管理提供了转型机会。
Abstract. Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to water managers globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is of particular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be more resilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source of long-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic controls on groundwater level via teleconnections with oscillatory ocean–atmosphere systems. However, relationships between large-scale climate systems and regional to local-scale rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater are often complex and non-linear so that the influence of long-term climate cycles on groundwater drought remains poorly understood. Furthermore, it is currently unknown whether the absolute contribution of multi-annual climate variability to total groundwater storage is significant. This study assesses the extent to which multi-annual variability in groundwater can be used to indicate the timing of groundwater droughts in the UK. Continuous wavelet transforms show how repeating teleconnection-driven 7-year and 16–32-year cycles in the majority of groundwater sites from all the UK's major aquifers can systematically control the recurrence of groundwater drought; and we provide evidence that these periodic modes are driven by teleconnections. Wavelet reconstructions demonstrate that multi-annual periodicities of the North Atlantic Oscillation, known to drive North Atlantic meteorology, comprise up to 40 % of the total groundwater storage variability. Furthermore, the majority of UK recorded droughts in recent history coincide with a minimum phase in the 7-year NAO-driven cycles in groundwater level, providing insight into drought occurrences on a multi-annual timescale. Long-range groundwater drought forecasts via climate teleconnections present transformational opportunities to drought prediction and its management across the North Atlantic region.