Statistical Downscaling of Daily Wind Speed Variations
Statistical Downscaling of Daily Wind Speed Variations
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DOI：
10.1175/jamc-d-13-0230.1
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发表时间：
2013-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Megan C. Kirchmeier;D. Lorenz;D. Vimont
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Megan C. Kirchmeier;D. Lorenz;D. Vimont
Thisstudypresentsthedevelopmentofamethodtostatistically每天都在缩小五大湖地区的风速变化。采用概率方法，利用大尺度日风速预报器对局地日风速日变化概率密度函数(PDF)进行预报。概率方法的优点是，它除了提供关于平均值的信息外，还提供关于方差和极值的真实信息，它允许将缩减的实现的自相关调到作为大尺度风的十进制(预报器)的函数的matchtheautocorrelationoflocal-scaleobservations，anditallowsflexibilityintheuseofthefinaldownscaled product.MuchattentionisgiventofittingtheproperfunctionalformofthePDFbyinvestigatingtheobserved局部尺度风速分布(预报器)。发现局地尺度标准差和局地尺度形状参数(来自伽马分布)是大尺度预报器的非常数函数。因此，发展了一个矢量广义线性模型来关联大尺度风速和局地风速。采用最大似然法和交叉验证法对大尺度风速下的局地伽马分布形状和尺度参数进行了拟合，得到了大尺度风速下的isadaily-varyingprobabilitydistributionoflocal-scalewindspeed，结果。
Thisstudypresentsthedevelopmentofamethodtostatistically downscale dailywindspeedvariationsin an extended Great Lakes region. A probabilistic approach is used, predicting a daily-varying probability density function (PDF) of local-scale daily wind speed conditioned on large-scale daily wind speed predictors. Advantages of a probabilistic method are that it provides realistic information on the variance and extremes in addition to information on the mean, it allows the autocorrelation of downscaled realizations to be tuned to matchtheautocorrelationoflocal-scaleobservations,anditallowsflexibilityintheuseofthefinaldownscaled product.MuchattentionisgiventofittingtheproperfunctionalformofthePDFbyinvestigatingtheobserved local-scale wind speed distribution (predictand) as a function of the decile of the large-scale wind (predictor). It is found that the local-scale standard deviation and the local-scale shape parameter (from a gamma distribution) are nonconstant functions of the large-scale predictor. As such, a vector generalized linear model is developed to relate the large-scale and local-scale wind speeds. Maximum likelihood and cross validation are used tofit local-scale gamma distribution shape and scale parameters to the large-scalewind speed.The result isadaily-varyingprobabilitydistributionoflocal-scalewindspeed,conditionedon thelarge-scalewindspeed.