Measuring The Impacts Of Prime-Age Adult Death On Rural Households In Kenya
Measuring The Impacts Of Prime-Age Adult Death On Rural Households In Kenya
复制标题
衡量壮年成人死亡对肯尼亚农村家庭的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Jayne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Yamano;T. Jayne
我们利用 1997 年和 2000 年对 1,422 个肯尼亚家庭进行的为期两年的调查，衡量了壮年成人死亡率如何影响农村家庭的规模和构成、农业生产、资产水平和非农收入。首先，该论文利用邻国坦桑尼亚艾滋病毒阴性样本的现有数据中的成人死亡率来预测在没有艾滋病毒的情况下可能预期的死亡人数，并将其与肯尼亚样本在调查间隔期间实际记录的死亡人数进行比较。根据这一程序，根据坦桑尼亚艾滋病毒阴性成人死亡率，只能预测 25-34 岁年龄段壮年女性死亡的四分之一和 35-44 岁年龄段男性死亡的约一半。在尼安萨地区，在更广泛的年龄/性别范围内，差异甚至更大。这有力地表明，艾滋病在这些年龄/性别类别的死亡记录中占很大比例，特别是在尼安萨地区。接下来，使用控制时变效应的家庭固定效应模型，我们测量了三年调查期间受成人死亡率影响的家庭与未受成人死亡率影响的家庭之间结果的变化。成人死亡的影响对已故家庭成员的性别和地位高度敏感。户主或配偶去世的家庭会导致家庭人数减少超过 1 人。 16 至 59 岁之间的男性户主死亡会导致家庭农作物净产值减少 68%。女性户主或配偶的死亡导致谷物种植面积大幅减少，而咖啡、茶和糖等经济作物在壮年男性户主死亡的家庭中受到的不利影响最大。非农收入也受到男性户主死亡的显着影响，但其他成年成员的情况则不然。其他壮年家庭成员的死亡被其他人加入家庭所部分抵消。其他壮年家庭成员的死亡对家庭农业生产、资产和非农收入的影响较小。最后，几乎没有迹象表明家庭能够从壮年户主成人死亡率的影响中迅速恢复；至少在三年的调查期间，对作物和非农业收入的影响不会减弱。本文最后讨论了这些发现对农业研究和推广计划以及旨在缓冲壮年成年人死亡影响的安全网计划的影响。
Using a two-year panel of 1,422 Kenyan households surveyed in 1997 and 2000, we measure how prime-age adult mortality affects rural households' size and composition, agricultural production, asset levels, and off-farm income. First, the paper uses adult mortality rates from available data on an HIV-negative sample from neighboring Tanzania to predict the number of deaths that might have been expected in the absence of HIV, and compares this to the number of deaths actually recorded over the survey interval in the Kenyan sample. Based on this procedure, only a quarter of the prime-age female deaths in the 25-34 age range and about half of the male deaths in the 35-44 year age range age range could have been predicted on the basis of the HIV-negative Tanzanian adult mortality rates. In the Nyanza area, the discrepancies were even larger over a broader number of age/sex ranges. This provides a strong indication that AIDS accounts for a large proportion of the recorded deaths for these age/sex categories, particularly in the Nyanza area. Next, using a household fixed-effects model that controls for time-varying effects, we measure changes in outcomes between households afflicted by adult mortality vs. those not afflicted over the three-year survey period. The effects of adult death are highly sensitive to the gender and position of the deceased family member in the household. Households suffering the death of the head -of-household or spouse incurred a greater-than-one person loss in household size. The death of a male household head between 16 and 59 years is associated with a 68% reduction in the net value of the household's crop production. Female head-of-household or spouse mortality causes a greater decline in cereal area cultivated, while cash crops such as coffee, tea, and sugar are most adversely affected in households incurring the death of a prime-age male head. Off-farm income is also significantly affected by the death of the male head of household, but not in the case of other adult members. The death of other prime-age family members is partially offset by an inflow of other individuals into the family. Other prime-age family members' mortality has less dramatic effects on the households' agricultural production, assets, and off-farm income. Lastly, there is little indication that households are able to recover quickly from the effects of prime-age head-of-household adult mortality; the effects on crop and non-farm incomes do not decay at least over the three-year survey interval. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of these findings for agricultural research and extension programs as well as for safety net programs designed to cushion the impacts of prime-age adult death.