Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Deaths Stratified by Sex in the Japanese Population.
Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Deaths Stratified by Sex in the Japanese Population.
复制标题
日本人口中性别分层的心血管疾病死亡的终生风险的预测。
DOI：
10.1161/jaha.121.021753
复制
发表时间：
2021-12-07
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Okamura, Tomonori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Imai, Yukiko;Tanaka, Sachiko Mizuno;Satoh, Michihiro;Hirata, Takumi;Murakami, Yoshitaka;Miura, Katsuyuki;Waki, Takashi;Hirata, Aya;Sairenchi, Toshimi;Irie, Fujiko;Sata, Mizuki;Ninomiya, Toshiharu;Ohkubo, Takayoshi;Ishikawa, Shizukiyo;Miyamoto, Yoshihiro;Ohnishi, Hirofumi;Saitoh, Shigeyuki;Tamakoshi, Akiko;Yamada, Michiko;Kiyama, Masahiko;Iso, Hiroyasu;Sakata, Kiyomi;Nakagawa, Hideaki;Okayama, Akira;Ueshima, Hirotsugu;Okamura, Tomonori
终生风险是对驾驶生活方式和行为变化的信息估计，特别是对年轻人来说。在日本人群中，心血管疾病的综合危险因素对按性别分层的终身风险的影响尚未得到调查，与西方人口相比，日本人的冠心病死亡率要低得多。我们的目标是估计可归因于传统危险因素的心血管疾病的终生死亡风险。在日本的一项队列研究中，我们分析了来自观察性队列的心血管预防证据中汇集的个人数据。使用改进的Kaplan-Meier方法来估计心血管死亡的剩余终身风险。总共纳入了41,002名日本男性和女性，随访时间为537到126人年。具有最佳危险因素(总胆固醇4.65 mm ol/L，收缩压120 mm Hg，舒张压120 mm)的人在指数年龄45岁时的终身风险；与≥2危险因素的最高风险特征(男性6.8%[95%CI，0%-11.9%]对男性19.4%[16.7%-21.4%]和女性6.9%[1.2%-11.5%]对15.4%[12.6%-18.1%]相比，80 mm汞、无糖尿病和不吸烟习惯)较低。风险因素的大小和数量逐渐与终身风险的增加相关，即使在成年期早期的个人中，他们往往具有较低的短期风险。已确定的心血管危险因素的程度可以转化为终生风险。我们的发现可能有助于风险沟通在早期发现未来的心血管疾病风险。
Lifetime risk is an informative estimate for driving lifestyle and behavioral changes especially for young adults. The impact of composite risk factors for cardiovascular disease on lifetime risk stratified by sex has not been investigated in the Japanese population, which has a much lower mortality of coronary heart disease compared with the Western population. We aimed to estimate lifetime risk of death from cardiovascular disease attributable to traditional risk factors. We analyzed pooled individual data from the Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in a Japanese cohort study. A modified Kaplan–Meier approach was used to estimate the remaining lifetime risk of cardiovascular death. In total, 41 002 Japanese men and women with 537 126 person‐years of follow‐up were included. The lifetime risk at the index‐age of 45 years for those with optimal risk factors (total cholesterol <4.65 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure <120 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure <80 mm Hg, absence of diabetes, and absence of smoking habit) was lower compared with the highest risk profile of ≥2 risk factors (6.8% [95% CI, 0%–11.9%] versus 19.4% [16.7%–21.4%] for men and 6.9% [1.2%–11.5%] versus 15.4% [12.6%–18.1%] for women). The magnitude and the number of risk factors were progressively associated with increased lifetime risk even in individuals in early adulthood who tend to have low short‐term risk. The degree of established cardiovascular risk factors can be converted into lifetime risk. Our findings may be useful for risk communication in the early detection of future cardiovascular disease risk.