China and Emerging Asia: Comrades or Competitors?
China and Emerging Asia: Comrades or Competitors?
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中国与亚洲新兴市场：同志还是竞争对手？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.484503
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
John Schindler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
John G. Fernald;Prakash Loungani;Alan G. Ahearne;John Schindler
中国出口的增长是否会减少其他亚洲新兴经济体的出口？我们发现，即使在控制了贸易伙伴收入增长和实际有效汇率之后，中国出口增长与其他亚洲新兴经济体之间的相关性实际上是正相关的（尽管通常并不显着）。我们还提供了总贸易方程的 VAR 估计结果，显示外国收入和汇率在决定亚洲出口增长方面的相对重要性。尽管汇率确实对出口表现很重要，但贸易伙伴的收入增长更为重要。此外，我们研究了具体产品并发现了贸易模式正在发生重大转变的证据，这与中国和东盟四国进入新兴工业化国家腾出的产品空间的“雁行”模式是一致的。我们的研究结果表明，中国和亚洲新兴市场既是同志（总体上）又是竞争对手（在特定产品上）。
Do increases in China's exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies? We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though usually not significant), even after controlling for trading-partner income growth and real effective exchange rates. We also present results from a VAR estimation of aggregate trade equations on the relative importance of foreign income and exchange rates in determining Asian export growth. Although exchange rates do matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters even more. In addition, we examine specific products and find evidence that a considerable shifting of trade patterns is taking place, consistent with a 'flying geese' pattern in which China and ASEAN-4 move into the product space vacated by the NIEs. Our results suggest that China and emerging Asia are both comrades (overall) and competitors (in specific products).