Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas
Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2607
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Genner, Martin J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rutterford, Louise A.;Simpson, Stephen D.;Genner, Martin J.
在过去的30年里，欧洲大陆架海洋经历了强烈的变暖。在北海，在这一时期对鱼类进行了全面监测，所得数据提供了应对气候变化的分布和丰度变化的独特记录（2，3）。我们使用这些数据来证明广义加性模型（GAM）的显着力量，在时间序列的早期数据上进行训练，以可靠地预测未来几年的分布和丰度趋势。然后，挑战基于过程的模型，预测冷水物种（4，5）的实质性和持续的极地转移，我们发现，GAM加上气候预测预测，未来50年的底层（底栖）鱼类物种的未来分布将受到适当深度栖息地可用性的强烈约束。这将导致群落结构、物种相互作用和商业渔业的显著变化，除非个体适应或种群水平的进化适应使鱼类能够忍受温暖的条件或迁移到以前不适合居住的地方。
European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years(1). In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change(2,3). We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species(4,5), we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations.