Area failure probability method for slope system failure risk assessment
Area failure probability method for slope system failure risk assessment
复制标题
边坡系统破坏风险评估的面积破坏概率法
DOI：
10.1016/j.compgeo.2018.11.017
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Zhang, Li-Min
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Dian-Qing;Yang, Zhi-Yong;Zhang, Li-Min
边坡破坏的定量风险评估为边坡加固设计和风险降低提供了有价值的信息。以往的研究大多基于安全系数最小的临界滑移面来评估边坡失稳风险。通常，在边坡稳定性分析之前，临界滑移面是未知的，并且可能随地下土壤剖面而变化。然而，在边坡稳定性分析中观察到，一个边坡可能同时沿多个滑面破坏。如何有效地将多个失稳滑面（MFSS）纳入边坡失稳风险评估仍然是一个有待解决的问题。本文提出了一种概述边坡不同位置土体破坏概率的新方法，称为区域破坏概率图（AFPC）。在AFPC的基础上，提出了将MFSS纳入边坡失稳风险评估的通用框架。通过一个斜率算例说明了所提出的方法。研究发现，AFPC将边坡可靠度分析结果以直观直观的方式呈现，增强了岩土工程从业人员的风险认知和沟通，忽略MFSS会导致对边坡失稳风险的低估。
Quantitative risk assessment of slope failure provides valuable information for slope reinforcement design and risk mitigation. Most of previous studies assessed the slope failure risk based on the critical slip surface with the minimum factor of safety. In general, the critical slip surface is unknown prior to the slope stability analysis and can vary with the underground soil profile. It was, however, observed in slope stability analyses that a slope may, simultaneously, fail along multiple slip surfaces. How to effectively incorporate multiple failure slip surfaces (MFSS) into slope failure risk assessment remains an open question. This paper develops a new method that provides an overview of the failure probability of soil masses at different locations on a slope, which is referred to as the area failure probability chart (AFPC) in this paper. Based on the AFPC, a general slope failure risk assessment framework is proposed to incorporate MFSS into slope failure risk assessment. The proposed approach is illustrated through a slope example. It is found that AFPC shows results of slope reliability analysis in a straightforward and visible way, which enhances the risk perception and communication for geotechnical practitioners, and ignoring MFSS leads to underestimation of slope failure risk.