Current and Future Demographics of the Veteran Population, 2014-2024
Current and Future Demographics of the Veteran Population, 2014-2024
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DOI：
10.1353/prv.2018.0002
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
0.7
通讯作者：
Cefalu, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Amaral, Ernesto F. L.;Pollard, Michael S.;Cefalu, Matthew
我们使用队列成分人口预测方法来预测 2014 年至 2024 年间美国退伍军人的人口数量，该方法按年龄、性别、种族/族裔、服役年代和地理位置提供估计值。我们还分析了预计退伍军人人口到医疗和保健中心的距离。我们的研究策略整合了多种方法程序，可应用于美国人口的其他亚群，以估计当地未来的人口趋势。国家预测的基线数据来自 2000 年人口普查，这是收集退伍军人信息的最后一次人口普查。我们考虑了死亡率估计值，根据人口特征进行了调整，并添加了美国国防部关于 2000 年之后进入人口的退伍军人的数据。我们使用引力模型估计了国内退伍军人的移民流量。补充数据来自美国社区调查，考虑了多种因素，包括年龄、性别、种族/民族、服务时代、发送和接收区域的人口规模以及区域之间的距离。我们预计，未来 10 年美国退伍军人人口将减少 19%：从 2014 年的 2160 万减少到 2024 年的 1750 万。人口中老年退伍军人的比例将略高。按性别和种族/民族划分的人口结构将发生适度变化。 2014年至2024年间，女性退伍军人的比例将增加3个百分点，从8%增至11%。同期非西班牙裔白人男性的比例将从 80% 下降到 76%。服务时代构成将在期间发生变化。 2014年至2024年间，参加过越南冲突的退伍军人将从31%下降到29%，而参加过海湾战争和9/11后冲突的退伍军人将从27%增加到42%。我们估计，从地理上看，退伍军人人口将更加集中在城市地区，俄亥俄河谷地区的退伍军人人口相对比例将会下降。
We project the population of United States veterans between 2014 and 2024 using a cohort component population projection method that provides estimates by age, sex, race/ethnicity, service era and geographic location. We also analyzedistance of the projected veteran population to medical and health centers. Our research strategy integrates several methodological procedures, which can be applied to other subgroups of the American population in order to estimate future demographic trends at the local level. Baseline data for national projections came from the 2000 Census, which was the last census to collect information about veterans. We factored in estimates of mortality, adjusted for demographic characteristics, and added data from the U.S. Department of Defense on veterans entering the population after 2000. We estimated migration flows of veterans within the country using gravity models. Supplementary data came from American Community Surveys and accounted for a variety of factors, including age, sex, race/ethnicity, service era, population size of sending and receiving areas, and distance between areas. We project that the population of U.S. veterans will decrease by 19 percent over the next 10 years: from 21.6 million in 2014 to 17.5 million in 2024. The population will have a slightly higher proportion of older veterans. There will be modest changes in the demographic mix by sex and race/ethnicity. Between 2014 and 2024, the proportion of female veterans will increase 3 percentage points, from 8 to 11 percent. The share of non-Hispanic white males will decrease from 80 to 76 percent over the same period. The service era composition will change in the period. Veterans from the Vietnam conflict will decrease from 31 to 29 percent, while those from the Gulf War and Post-9/11 conflict will increase from 27 to 42 percent between 2014 and 2024. We estimate that, geographically, the veteran population will become more concentrated in urban areas, and the relative proportion of their population in the Ohio River Valley region will diminish.