Analysis of Rooftop Photovoltaics Diffusion in Energy Community Buildings by a Novel GIS- and Agent-Based Modeling Co-Simulation Platform
Analysis of Rooftop Photovoltaics Diffusion in Energy Community Buildings by a Novel GIS- and Agent-Based Modeling Co-Simulation Platform
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DOI：
10.1109/access.2019.2927446
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发表时间：
2019-07
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Daniele Salvatore Schiera;F. D. Minuto;Lorenzo Bottaccioli;R. Borchiellini;A. Lanzini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Daniele Salvatore Schiera;F. D. Minuto;Lorenzo Bottaccioli;R. Borchiellini;A. Lanzini
介绍了一种基于经验的地面智能体建模(ABM)框架，用于评估屋顶光伏系统在城区既有建筑上的空间和时间扩散。整个ABM框架考虑了社会、技术、环境和经济方面，以评估光伏技术在城市环境中的传播。一个包含18720户家庭的城区被用来测试所提出的ABM框架，该小区分布在1290个建筑区块上，表面积为2.47平方公里。结果表明，基础监管框架(即内部电力市场规则)如何影响采用的模式和强度，从而实现可用潜力的不同份额。支持在共管公寓(即能源社区建筑)内，而不仅仅是在独户住宅内建立“消费者”的政策，是产生高扩散率的关键。通过从一对一配置切换到一对多模式，装机容量增加了80%，即从安装在单户家庭和/或单一光伏业主的5.90兆瓦屋顶光伏增加到能源社区建筑的10.64兆瓦。此外，将自动产生的太阳能电力分散到整个公寓人口的负荷范围内的可能性导致大多数模拟建筑的自耗率超过50%，自给率超过20%。
The present work introduces an empirically ground agent-based modeling (ABM) framework to assess the spatial and temporal diffusion of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems on existing buildings of a city district. The overall ABM framework takes into account social, technical, environmental, and economic aspects to evaluate the diffusion of PV technology in the urban context. A city district that includes 18 720 households distributed over 1 290 building blocks and a surface area of 2.47 km2 is used to test the proposed ABM framework. Results show how the underlying regulatory framework (i.e., the rules of the internal electricity market) influences the pattern and intensity of adoption, thus realizing different shares of the available potential. Policies that support the establishment of ‘prosumers’ within Condominiums (i.e., energy community buildings), and not in single-family houses only, is key to yield high diffusion rates. The installed capacity increases by 80% by switching from the one-to-one configuration to the one-to-many paradigm, i.e., from 5.90 MW of rooftop PV installed on single-family households and/or single PV owners to 10.64 MW in energy community buildings. Moreover, the possibility to spread the auto-generated solar electricity over the load profile of the entire population of Condominium results in self-consumption rates greater than 50% and self-sufficiency ratios above 20% for the majority of the simulated buildings.