Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?
Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0137906
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Oki T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Murakami M;Ono K;Tsubokura M;Nomura S;Oikawa T;Oka T;Kami M;Oki T
2011年福岛第一核电站发生事故后，养老院的居民和工作人员自愿从受损地区撤离，以避免受到辐射。不幸的是，疏散导致养老院居民的死亡率增加。我们使用相同的有害指标，即预期寿命损失(LLE)，对三家疗养院的191名居民和184名工作人员的疏散和辐射之间的风险权衡进行了评估，在四种情景下，即“快速疏散(根据实际情况；即3月22日疏散)”、“刻意疏散(即6月20日疏散)”、“20mSv暴露”和“100mSv暴露”。使用南相马市和索马市养老院的生存概率数据评估了养老院居民因疏散而死亡的LLE。根据额外的有效剂量和生存概率，根据估计的白血病和所有实体肿瘤的年龄特定死亡率，计算辐射死亡率的LLE。在快速疏散中，由于疏散相关风险造成的居民和工作人员的总潜在危险为11 000人·d--远高于其他情况下因辐射造成的居民和工作人员的总潜在危险(故意疏散、20毫西弗辐射和100毫西弗辐射分别为27人、1100人和5800人·d)。养老院居民在降低疏散风险方面的回旋余地大得惊人。因此，疏散条例和规划应与辐射风险的权衡很好地平衡。这是第一次对核电站事故后辐射暴露和疏散之间的风险权衡进行量化评估。
After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. “rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March),” “deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June),” “20-mSv exposure,” and “100-mSv exposure.” The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d—much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident.