Immigration, Social Security, and Broader Fiscal Impacts
Immigration, Social Security, and Broader Fiscal Impacts
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移民、社会保障和更广泛的财政影响
DOI：
10.1257/aer.90.2.350
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Tim Miller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ronald Lee;Tim Miller
人口老龄化和不断上升的医疗成本将导致几十年后联邦支出的急剧增加（Lee et al., 1999）。越来越多的美国移民可能会减缓人口老龄化，并帮助支付社会保障和公共医疗保健费用，从而有助于避免未来的危机。但许多移民受教育程度低，生育率高，因此他们对财政的净影响可能是昂贵的，而不是有益的。本文回顾了我们早期对移民财政影响的分析（Lee and Miller, 1997），鉴于更高的生产率增长率，近年来联邦有效所得税率的意外增长，以及对人口预测的一些修正。我们将强调对社会保障的影响，并解决最近文献提出的问题（Holger Bonin等人，1998年；George Borjas， 1999年；Alan Auerbach和Philip Oreopolis， 2000年；Kjetil Storesletten， 2000年）。
Population aging and rising health costs will cause dramatic increases in federal expenditures some decades from now (Lee et al., 1999). Rising immigration to the United States may help avert this future crisis by slowing population aging and helping to pay for Social Security and public health care. But many immigrants have low education and high fertility, so their net fiscal impact may be costly rather than beneficial. This paper revisits our earlier analysis of the fiscal impact of immigration (Lee and Miller, 1997), henceforth LM97, in light of higher projected rates of productivity growth, an unexpected increase in the effective federal income tax rate in recent years, and some revisions of the demographic projections. We will emphasize implications for Social Security, and address points raised by the recent literature (Holger Bonin et al., 1998; George Borjas, 1999; Alan Auerbach and Philip Oreopolis, 2000; Kjetil Storesletten, 2000).