A method for estimating from thermometer sales the incidence of diseases that are symptomatically similar to influenza.
A method for estimating from thermometer sales the incidence of diseases that are symptomatically similar to influenza.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jbi.2013.02.003
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发表时间：
2013-06
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Espino JU
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Villamarín R;Cooper G;Wagner M;Tsui FC;Espino JU
疾病暴发的早期发现和准确定性是公共卫生的重要任务。像流感（SLI）这样的传染病，包括流感本身，构成了由公共卫生流行病学家监测的一类重要疾病。监测急诊科（艾德）就诊的SLI表现可以提供此类疾病在人群中的存在、程度和动态的早期指示。我们调查了使用每日非处方温度计销售数据，以估计每日艾德SLI计数在阿勒格尼县（AC），宾夕法尼亚州。我们发现，一个简单的线性模型拟合的数据很好地预测每日艾德SLI计数从每日计数的温度计销售AC。这些结果提高了这种模式可以应用的可能性，也许与适应，在其他地区的国家，通常温度计销售数据，但每日艾德SLI计数没有。
Early detection and accurate characterization of disease outbreaks are important tasks of public health. Infectious diseases that present symptomatically like influenza (SLI), including influenza itself, constitute an important class of diseases that are monitored by public-health epidemiologists. Monitoring emergency department (ED) visits for presentations of SLI could provide an early indication of the presence, extent, and dynamics of such disease in the population. We investigated the use of daily over-the-counter thermometer-sales data to estimate daily ED SLI counts in Allegheny County (AC), Pennsylvania. We found that a simple linear model fits the data well in predicting daily ED SLI counts from daily counts of thermometer sales in AC. These results raise the possibility that this model could be applied, perhaps with adaptation, in other regions of the country, where commonly thermometer sales data are available, but daily ED SLI counts are not.