A multi-hazard framework for spatial-temporal impact analysis
A multi-hazard framework for spatial-temporal impact analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102829
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发表时间：
2022-03-17
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Rudari, Roberto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
De Angeli, Silvia;Malamud, Bruce D.;Rudari, Roberto
本文旨在提供一个五步概念框架来分析多灾害相互作用对建成环境的影响。我们的方法包括批判性文献综述和利益相关者研讨会。这一框架的五个步骤如下：（一）查明灾害及其相互作用，（二）多种灾害建模，（三）分析灾害影响的时空演变，（四）查明影响的相互作用，（五）多种灾害风险或影响评估。我们的方法是基于对灾害的空间和时间演变的系统分析，以确定潜在的影响相互作用。在第四步中，我们将灾害影响的时空重叠分为四种类型：（一）时空重叠，（二）时间（但不是空间）重叠，（三）空间重叠（残留和后续损害），（四）独立的单一灾害。这一框架以目前的多种灾害办法和准则为基础，一般适用于各种灾害，包括灾害和影响的相互作用，并考虑到残余损害和恢复过程。该框架被应用到一个真实的案例研究在波河流域，意大利，一个假设的破坏情况下，从地震的冲击，削弱了堤坝系统，然后结合强烈的降雨导致堤坝倒塌和洪水。该框架应用程序得到每一步骤的可视化支持，有助于确定多灾害影响建模的关键要素。该框架的实际用途包括：为决策制定核对表，缩小未来对多种灾害风险的研究需求，以及将多种灾害的各个方面纳入国际灾害风险管理准则。
This paper aims to provide a five-step conceptual framework to analyze the impacts to the built environment from multi-hazard interactions. Our methodology includes a critical literature review and stakeholder workshops. This framework's five steps are the following: (I) identify hazards and their interactions, (II) multi-hazard modelling, (III) analysis of the hazards' spatio-temporal evolution of impacts, (IV) identification of impact interactions, (V) a multi-hazard risk or impact assessment. Our approach is based on the systematic analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of hazards to determine potential impact interactions. In Step IV, we classify the spatial-temporal overlap of hazard impacts into four types: (i) spatial-temporal overlapping, (ii) temporal (but not spatial) overlapping, (iii) spatial overlapping (with residual and subsequent damage), (iv) independent single hazards. Building on current multi-hazard approaches and guidelines, this framework is generally applicable to a broad range of hazards, includes both hazard and impact interactions, and considers residual damage and recovery processes. The framework is applied to a real-world case study in Po Valley, Italy, of a hypothetical damage scenario from an earthquake shock that weakens the levee system, and then combined with intense rain results in a levee collapse and flood. The framework application is supported by a visualization of each step, useful to identify key elements for multi-hazard impact modelling. Practical uses of the framework include the creation of checklists for decision-making, narrowing future research needs in multi-hazard risk, and integrating multi-hazard aspects into international disaster risk management guidelines.