Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns
Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns
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DOI：
10.1002/2016gl072488
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发表时间：
2017-03-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Feyen, Luc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mentaschi, Lorenzo;Vousdoukas, Michalis I.;Feyen, Luc
在这项研究中，我们进行了全面的建模分析，以确定全球趋势的极端波能通量（WEF）沿着海岸线在世纪下的高排放途径（代表性浓度途径8.5）。对于世纪末，结果表明，在100年的回报水平WEF的南温带的大部分沿海地区的显着增加高达30%，而在北方大的沿海地区的特点是一个显着的负趋势。我们发现，极端WEF的最显着的长期趋势可以解释为增强的遥相关模式，如南极涛动，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动，北大西洋涛动。预计的变化将对海洋工程应用和灾害风险管理产生广泛影响。由于预计的相对海平面上升和更极端的波浪活动的综合影响，南半球的低洼沿海国家将特别脆弱。
In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long-term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low-lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.