Implications of a changing climate on food security and smallholders' livelihoods in Bogota, Colombia
Implications of a changing climate on food security and smallholders' livelihoods in Bogota, Colombia
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DOI：
10.1007/s11027-012-9432-0
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发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Bruni, Michele
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Eitzinger, Anton;Laederach, Peter;Bruni, Michele
为波哥大市提供粮食的小农面临着许多挑战，这些挑战危及他们的生计，进而危及哥伦比亚首都的粮食安全。我们预计未来气候条件的变化将加剧小农的困境，这预计将进一步损害波哥大的粮食安全。本文特别旨在评估气候变化 (CC) 对向波哥大提供大部分粮食的小农生计的影响。在我们的多学科方法中，我们将CC的暴露转化为对作物的直接影响，并利用可持续农村生计框架评估了敏感性和适应能力。结果显示，研究区域的降雨量（平均100毫米）和气温（平均2.1摄氏度）将增加，而到2050年，芒果（Mangifera indica）、木瓜（Carica papaya）、玉米（Zea mays）和大蕉（Musa balbisiana）等最重要作物的未来气候适宜性将下降19%至47%。敏感度和适应能力的研究表明，参与由几个当地和国际非政府组织 (NGO) 发起的农贸市场的农民比通过中介机构销售的农民更不容易受到 CC 的影响。那些在农贸市场直接向消费者销售产品的农民，其社会资本和金融资本的适应能力（3分，3分）高于那些向中介机构销售的适应能力较低的农民（1分，3分）。鉴于一些主要作物的整体气候适宜性下降以及其他作物适宜性地理位置的变化，波哥大的粮食安全、城市周边的生态景观和农民的生计可能会受到严重威胁。我们进一步得出结论，除非采取适当的适应措施，否则气候适宜性的地理变化也可能迫使农民将农作物转移到更高的海拔地区，包括剩余的森林和帕拉莫斯（哥伦比亚高山苔原生态系统），这些在不久的将来可能会受到威胁。
Small farmers who supply the city of Bogota with food are facing many challenges that are jeopardizing their livelihoods and by extension, the food security of Colombia's capital. We expect future changes in climatic conditions to exacerbate the plight of the small farmers and this is expected to compromise Bogota's food security even further. This paper specifically seeks to assess the impact of climate change (CC) on the livelihoods of smallholders who supply Bogota with most of its food. In our multidisciplinary methodology, we translated the exposure to CC into direct impact on crops and assessed sensitivity and adaptive capacity using the sustainable rural livelihoods framework. The results show that rainfall (by average of 100 mm) and temperature (by average of 2.1 A degrees C) will increase over the study area, while the future climate suitability of the most important crops such as mango (Mangifera indica), papaya (Carica papaya), corn (Zea mays) and plantain (Musa balbisiana) shows a decrease of 19 % to 47 % climate suitability by the year 2050. The assessment of sensitivity and adaptive capacity demonstrates that farmers participating in a farmers' market, initiated by several local and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), are less vulnerable to CC than farmers who sell through intermediaries. Those farmers selling directly to consumers in the farmers' market have a higher adaptive capacity (3 on a scale of 3) in social and financial capital than those selling to intermediaries with less adaptive capacity (1 on a scale of 3). In light of the reduction in overall climatic suitability of some of the major crops and the change of geographic location of suitability for others, there are likely to be serious threats for Bogota's food security, the ecological landscape around the city, and farmers' livelihoods. We further conclude that unless proper adaptation measures are implemented, the geographical shift in climate suitability may also force farmers to shift their crops to higher elevations including remaining forests and paramos (the Colombian alpine tundra ecosystems), which may be threatened in the near future.