Economic voting in Europe: Did the crisis matter?
Economic voting in Europe: Did the crisis matter?
复制标题
欧洲经济投票：危机重要吗？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Liisa Talving
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liisa Talving
最近的投票行为文献关注的是全球金融和经济危机的后果。2008-2009年期间，大多数欧洲国家面临经济增长大幅放缓和失业率上升的局面。从理论上讲，这将导致我们预计现有的支持会产生强大的经济影响。然而，最近的学术研究表明，责任的日益明确性使选民越来越难以将经济结果归咎于责任，从而降低了惩罚性投票的可能性。那么，制裁-奖励机制是否会随着时间的推移而发生变化？与经济低迷之前相比，经济投票在危机期间是更明显还是更明显？本文分析了西欧12个国家1989年、1994年、2004年、2009年和2014年的欧洲选举研究(EES)数据，发现这两种观点都不支持：随着时间的推移，经济效应几乎没有突变。经济和投票之间的统计关系保持着显著的恒定，不受短期波动的影响，即使在我们有生以来最剧烈的经济衰退之后也是如此。考虑到选民对国家经济表现的不满程度在2009年飙升，经济投票的稳定性尤其值得注意。
Recent voting behavior literature is concerned with the consequences of the global financial and economic crisis. During 2008–2009, most European countries faced a considerable slowdown in economic growth and an increase in unemployment levels. Theoretically, this would lead us to expect strong economic effects on incumbent support. However, recent academic work suggests that diminishing clarity of responsibility makes it increasingly difficult for voters to attribute blame for economic outcomes, consequently making punitive voting less likely. Has the sanctioning-rewarding mechanism then changed over time? Was economic voting more or less pronounced during the crisis than it was prior to the economic downturn? Analyzing the European Election Studies (EES) data for 12 Western European countries in 1989, 1994, 2004, 2009 and 2014, this paper finds support for neither proposition: there is very little abrupt change in economic effects over time. The statistical relationship between the economy and voting remained remarkably constant and was not subject to short-term fluctuations, even after the most dramatic economic recession in our lifetime. The stability of economic voting is particularly noteworthy considering that levels of voter dissatisfaction with national economic performance skyrocketed in 2009.
联合政府下的经济投票：来自德国的证据*
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Mary Stegmaier;Jale Tosun
通讯作者：
Jale Tosun