Impacts of hydropower and climate change on drivers of ecological productivity of Southeast Asia's most important wetland
Impacts of hydropower and climate change on drivers of ecological productivity of Southeast Asia's most important wetland
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.10.015
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发表时间：
2014-01-24
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Piman, Thanapon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Arias, Mauricio E.;Cochrane, Thomas A.;Piman, Thanapon
洞里萨湖是东南亚最大的湖泊，其渔业支持柬埔寨数百万人的生计和营养。然而，由于湄公河水电开发和全球气候变化，该生态系统的水文和生态驱动因素正在发生变化。本研究的目的是量化湄公河未来水文变化对洞里萨湖水生净初级生产力（NPP）的影响。一个三维（3D）的水动力模型被用来评估水电开发和气候变化的11个方案，相对于水流，悬浮泥沙，河漫滩栖息地覆盖，这被确定为生产力变化的关键驱动因素。我们发现，水电开发将导致最明显的季节性变化，减少雨季水位和增加旱季水位。水电和气候变化的综合情景显示，开放水域和灌溉/灌溉水稻的面积将分别扩大35 +/- 3%和16 +/-5%，而廊道森林的最佳面积将减少40 +/-27%。预计年净沉积量估计值将从328 +/-93万吨基线值减少56 +/- 3%。开阔水域和洪泛区的年平均NPP分别为1.07 +/- 0.06和3.67 +/- 0.61万吨C，预计减少34 +/- 4%。我们的研究得出结论，洞里萨湖的生态生产力的驱动因素-栖息地覆盖，沉积和NPP -将面临重大变化，如果不实施缓解和适应战略，预计其生态系统的服务将下降。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
The Tonle Sap is the largest lake in Southeast Asia and its fishery supports the livelihood and nutrition of millions of people in Cambodia. However, the hydrological and ecological drivers of this ecosystem are changing as a result of hydropower development on the Mekong River and global climate change. The objective of this study was to quantify the impacts of the Mekong's future hydrological alterations on aquatic net primary production (NPP) of the Tonle Sap. A three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model was used to evaluate eleven scenarios of hydropower development and climate change, with respect to water flows, suspended sediments, and floodplain habitat cover, which were identified as the key drivers of productivity change. We found that hydropower development would cause the most distinct changes in seasonality by reducing wet season water levels and increasing dry season water levels. Combined scenarios of hydropower and climate change revealed that areas of open water and rainfed/irrigated rice would expand by 35 +/- 3% and 16 +/- 5%, respectively, while optimal area for gallery forest would decrease by 40 +/- 27%. The estimated annual net sedimentation was projected to decrease by 56 +/- 3% from the 3.28 +/- 0.93 million tons baseline values. Annual average NPP in the open water and in the floodplain was 1.07 +/- 0.06 and 3.67 +/- 0.61 million tons C, respectively, and a reduction of 34 +/- 4% is expected. Our study concludes that Tonle Sap's drivers of ecological productivity - habitat cover, sedimentation, and NPP - will face a significant change, and a decline of its ecosystem's services should be expected if mitigation and adaptation strategies are not implemented. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.