Transformation of Possibility Functions in a Climate Model of Intermediate Complexity
Transformation of Possibility Functions in a Climate Model of Intermediate Complexity
复制标题
中等复杂度气候模型中可能性函数的变换
DOI：
10.1007/3-540-34777-1_40
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. S. Deimling
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Held;T. S. Deimling
摘要在一系列专家访谈的基础上，我们考虑了气候模式参数值主观不确定性的一种可能性测度。我们考虑气候模型CLIMBER-2中的5个关键不确定参数，该模型代表了数千个常微分方程的系统。我们推导出一个模拟器的模型，并确定模型的映射参数的不确定性对气候敏感性的输出不确定性。气候敏感性是一个重要的气候系统特征，对政策建议很重要，但存在巨大的不确定性。虽然由单参数扰动引起的输出/输入不确定性的比率类似于使用标准概率测度时的相应比率，但我们发现在5维情况下该比率定性地更大。我们解释这个诅咒的尺寸效应的高斯模拟玩具系统。
AbstractMotivated by a preliminary series of expert interviews we consider a possibility measure for the subjective uncertainty on climate model parameter values. We consider 5 key uncertain parameters in the climate model CLIMBER-2 that represents a system of thousands of ordinary differential equations. We derive an emulator for the model and determine the model’s mapping of parameter uncertainty on output uncertainty for climate sensitivity. Climate sensitivity represents a central climate system characteristic important for policy advice, however subject to huge uncertainty. While the ratio of output/input uncertainty induced by a single-parameter perturbation resembles the respective ratio when using a standard probability measure, we find the ratio qualitatively larger in the 5-dimensional situation. We explain this curse of dimension effect by a Gaussian analogue toy system.