A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector
A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector
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DOI：
10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022
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发表时间：
2022-06-16
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Zdorovennova, Galina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Golub, Malgorzata;Thiery, Wim;Zdorovennova, Galina
经验证据表明，整个地球仪的湖泊和水库正在变暖。因此，越来越需要预测湖泊热结构的未来变化以及由此产生的湖泊地球化学变化，以便为可能的影响制定计划。以前的气候变化对湖泊的影响的研究往往依赖于一个单一的模式，被迫与有限的气候驱动的预测未来的湖泊数量相对较少。因此，我们对气候变化对湖泊影响的了解是零碎的，基于使用不同数据来源和建模协议的分散研究，主要集中在单个湖泊或湖泊区域。这使得无法在全球和区域范围内确定气候变化对湖泊的主要影响，并可能导致在政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）的评估报告等政策相关文件中缺乏对湖泊水质的考虑。在这里，我们描述了一个模拟协议开发的湖泊部门的部门间影响模型相互比较项目（ISIMIP），用于模拟气候变化对湖泊的影响，使用一个合奏的湖泊模型和气候变化情景的ISIMIP第2和第3阶段。该协议规定了湖泊模拟，这些模拟由网格观测和各种代表性温室气体浓度路径（RCP）下的不同地球系统模型的气候强迫驱动，所有这些都在0.5度x 0.5度的全球网格上进行了一致的偏差校正。在ISIMIP第2阶段，11个湖泊模型被迫与这些数据，以预测62个经过充分研究的湖泊的热结构，其中数据可用于在历史条件下进行校准，并使用未校准的模型为17 500个湖泊定义的所有全球网格单元包含湖泊。在ISIMIP第3阶段，这种方法被扩展到考虑更多的湖泊，更多的模型和更多的过程。ISIMIP湖泊部门是在地方和全球范围内预测未来水温，热结构和湖泊冰物候的最大国际努力，并为未来模拟气候变化对水质和湖泊地球化学的影响铺平了道路。
Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.