Risk-based water resources planning in practice: a blueprint for the water industry in England
Risk-based water resources planning in practice: a blueprint for the water industry in England
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DOI：
10.1111/wej.12479
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Watts, Glenn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hall, Jim W.;Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad;Watts, Glenn
面对人口增长、气候变化和环境可持续性的挑战，英格兰需要确保有弹性的供水。我们提出了一个水资源规划的蓝图，使用系统模拟模型来估计目前和未来计划和情景的范围内缺水的频率，持续时间和严重程度。我们使用多目标优化工具来探索这些风险指标与替代计划成本之间的权衡，并使用敏感性分析来确定能够稳健实现可容忍风险目标以及其他绩效目标的计划。在泰晤士河流域的案例研究的结果表明，所提出的方法是可行的共同可用的数据集和模型。所提出的方法提供了证据，制定水资源管理计划，证明平衡水资源短缺的风险，水用户的成本和环境限制在一个不确定的未来。
Resilient water supplies in England need to be secured in the face of challenges of population growth, climate change and environmental sustainability. We propose a blueprint for water resources planning that uses system simulation modelling to estimate the frequency, duration and severity of water shortages at present and in the context of future plans and scenarios. We use multiobjective optimisation tools to explore trade-offs between these risk metrics and cost of alternative plans, and we use sensitivity analysis to identify plans that robustly achieve targets for tolerable risk, alongside other performance objectives. The results of a case study in the Thames basin demonstrate that the proposed methodology is feasible given commonly available data sets and models. The proposed method provides evidence with which to develop water resource management plans that demonstrably balance the risks of water shortages, costs to water users and environmental constraints in an uncertain future.