Characterizing all-cause excess mortality patterns during COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.
Characterizing all-cause excess mortality patterns during COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12879-021-06122-7
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发表时间：
2021-05-07
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Chowell G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dahal S;Banda JM;Bento AI;Mizumoto K;Chowell G
低检测率和报告延迟阻碍了对与新冠肺炎大流行有关的死亡负担的估计。在公共卫生紧急情况下，估计所有原因造成的超额死亡人数超过预期死亡水平，可以提供更可靠的死亡负担情况。在这里，我们旨在估计墨西哥新冠肺炎大流行对绝对和相对死亡率的影响。我们获得了2015年至2020年墨西哥所有原因以及按性别和地理区域划分的每周死亡率时间序列。我们还汇编了新冠肺炎病例和死亡的监测数据，以评估大流行的时间和强度，并收集了来自墨西哥的关于“死亡”的推文比例的每周系列，以评估人们媒体对“死亡”的互动与大流行死亡人数上升之间的相关性。我们通过拟合Serfling回归模型估计了所有原因的超额死亡率和死亡率比基线的增长，并使用广义Logistic增长模型预测了2021年前4周墨西哥的总超额死亡人数。我们估计，2020年墨西哥新冠肺炎大流行导致的全因超额死亡率为每10,000人26.10人，相当于333,538人超额死亡。男性的超额死亡率(33.99)是女性(18.53)的两倍。墨西哥城报告的超额死亡率(63.54)和RR(2.09)高于该国其他地区(超额死亡率 = 23.25，RR = 1.62)。虽然新冠肺炎死亡只占墨西哥总超额死亡的38.64%，但我们的预测估计，墨西哥在2021年前4周累计超额死亡~ 61,610[95%PI：60,003，63,216]。推特比例与超额死亡率显著相关(ρ = 0.508[95%CI：0.245，0.701]，p值 = 0.0004)。新冠肺炎疫情严重影响了墨西哥。实验室确认的新冠肺炎死亡仅占墨西哥2020年全因超额死亡(333,538人)的38.64%。这要么反映了墨西哥低检测率的影响，要么反映了大流行期间因其他原因造成的死亡人数激增。一项基于模型的预测表明，2021年1月平均发生了61,610例多死病例。
Low testing rates and delays in reporting hinder the estimation of the mortality burden associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. During a public health emergency, estimating all cause excess deaths above an expected level of death can provide a more reliable picture of the mortality burden. Here, we aim to estimate the absolute and relative mortality impact of COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. We obtained weekly mortality time series due to all causes for Mexico, and by gender, and geographic region from 2015 to 2020. We also compiled surveillance data on COVID-19 cases and deaths to assess the timing and intensity of the pandemic and assembled weekly series of the proportion of tweets about ‘death’ from Mexico to assess the correlation between people’s media interaction about ‘death’ and the rise in pandemic deaths. We estimated all-cause excess mortality rates and mortality rate ratio increase over baseline by fitting Serfling regression models and forecasted the total excess deaths for Mexico for the first 4 weeks of 2021 using the generalized logistic growth model. We estimated the all-cause excess mortality rate associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico in 2020 at 26.10 per 10,000 population, which corresponds to 333,538 excess deaths. Males had about 2-fold higher excess mortality rate (33.99) compared to females (18.53). Mexico City reported the highest excess death rate (63.54) and RR (2.09) compared to rest of the country (excess rate = 23.25, RR = 1.62). While COVID-19 deaths accounted for only 38.64% of total excess deaths in Mexico, our forecast estimate that Mexico has accumulated a total of ~ 61,610 [95% PI: 60,003, 63,216] excess deaths in the first 4 weeks of 2021. Proportion of tweets was significantly correlated with the excess mortality (ρ = 0.508 [95% CI: 0.245, 0.701], p-value = 0.0004). The COVID-19 pandemic has heavily affected Mexico. The lab-confirmed COVID-19 deaths accounted for only 38.64% of total all cause excess deaths (333,538) in Mexico in 2020. This reflects either the effect of low testing rates in Mexico, or the surge in number of deaths due to other causes during the pandemic. A model-based forecast indicates that an average of 61,610 excess deaths have occurred in January 2021.
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影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Chowell G;Viboud C;Simonsen L;Miller MA;Acuna-Soto R;Díaz JM;Martínez-Martín AF
通讯作者：
Martínez-Martín AF
DOI：
10.1177/1090198120929677
发表时间：
2020-08
期刊：
Health education & behavior : the official publication of the Society for Public Health Education
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kim SJ;Bostwick W
通讯作者：
Bostwick W
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32335-3
发表时间：
2018-11-10
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators
通讯作者：
GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators
影响因子：
13.6
作者：
Kogan NE;Clemente L;Liautaud P;Kaashoek J;Link NB;Nguyen AT;Lu FS;Huybers P;Resch B;Havas C;Petutschnig A;Davis J;Chinazzi M;Mustafa B;Hanage WP;Vespignani A;Santillana M
通讯作者：
Santillana M
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Charu, Vivek;Chowell, Gerardo;Viboud, Cecile
通讯作者：
Viboud, Cecile