An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha
An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-14-1871-2014
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发表时间：
2013-12
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
A. Hicks;J. Barclay;P. Simmons;S. Loughlin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Hicks;J. Barclay;P. Simmons;S. Loughlin
抽象的。间歇性火山活动带来的不确定性在世界各地的火山中相当普遍。虽然更好地了解任何一个火山的行为特征有可能减少这种不确定性，但只有当这种知识与利益相关者有关并有效地传达以告知良好的决策时，才能实现随后减少火山威胁的风险。成功需要跨越学科界限的方法，技能和专业知识的整合。该研究项目开发和试验了一种新的跨学科方法，以减少特里斯坦-达库尼亚库尼亚（南大西洋）的火山风险。这是第一次将火山学技术、概率决策支持和社会科学方法整合到一项研究中。产生的新数据：（1）没有确定最近火山活动的时空模式;（2）量化了未来火山爆发情景的高度科学不确定性;（3）分析了社区由于地理上的孤立和遭受火山灾害而造成的自然脆弱性;（4）评价了社会和文化对脆弱性和复原力的影响;以及（5）评估了情景规划方法的有效性，这既是一种整合不同研究领域的方法，也是一种使岛上决策者能够在其社区内掌握风险识别和管理以及能力建设的方法。该文件提供了经验证据，证明了创新的跨学科框架对减少火山风险的价值。它还证明了将社会和物理科学与制定有效的、有针对性的参与和沟通战略相结合在减少火山风险方面所产生的力量。
Abstract. The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.