Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century
Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aaa00e
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
de Sherbinin, Alex
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coffel, Ethan D.;Horton, Radley M.;de Sherbinin, Alex
由于全球温度和比湿度的上升，预计热应激将在整个 21 世纪加剧。一些最容易受到危险的高温和潮湿组合影响的地区也是人口最稠密的地区之一。因此，到本世纪中后期，有可能广泛暴露于接近甚至在某些情况下超过人类耐受理论极限的湿球温度。我们预计，到 2080 年，在热带地区和中纬度地区，目前极端湿球温度事件的相对频率可能会上升 100-250 倍（大约是仅温度变化频率变化的两倍），这些地区预计将拥有世界大约一半的人口。此外，暴露于超过最近致命热浪的湿球温度的人口可能会增加五到十倍，到2070年至2080年，每天暴露于湿球温度超过当今最严重热浪的人数将达到150-7.5亿人。根据 RCP 8.5，到 2080 年，暴露于高于 35 摄氏度的湿球温度（人类耐受的理论极限）每年可能会超过 100 万人日。遵循 RCP 4.5 限制排放可以完全消除暴露于该极端阈值的情况。一些受影响最严重的地区，特别是印度东北部和西非沿海地区，目前制冷基础设施稀缺，适应能力相对较强，人口增长迅速。在未来几十年里，热应激可能会被证明是气候变化中经历最广泛、最直接危险的方面之一，对人类健康、能源基础设施以及从农业生产到军事训练等户外活动构成严重威胁。
As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100-250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world's population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150-750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today's most severe heat waves by 2070-2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 degrees C the theoretical limit for human tolerance could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to he one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.