Choosing between adaptation and prevention with an increasing probability of a pandemic
Choosing between adaptation and prevention with an increasing probability of a pandemic
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jebo.2016.06.007
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发表时间：
2016-12-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Finnoff, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berry, Kevin;Finnoff, David
在人类行为和气候变化的推动下，流行病的风险正在增加，而这两者都是决策者难以控制的。有两种主要策略可用于应对这些变化。本文考虑在大流行风险增加的一段时间间隔内，在大流行之前投资于适应（国内）资本或预防（外国）资本的决定。本文展示了两种策略中相对较小的投资如何通过较小的预期未来损失提供大量储蓄。适应、预防和风险之间的技术关系也决定了长期投资的最佳组合。随着风险的增加，这三只股票之间的技术关系导致策略的最佳组合随着时间的推移而变化。(C) 2016 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
The risk of pandemics is increasing, driven by changes in human behavior and climate, both of which are difficult for policymakers to control. There are two main strategies available for reacting to these changes. This paper considers the decision to invest in either adaptation (domestic) capital or prevention (foreign) capital before a pandemic in an interval of time when pandemic risk is increasing. This paper demonstrates how relatively small investments in the two strategies can provide large savings through smaller expected future damages. The technical relationships between adaptation, prevention and risk also determine the optimal mixture of investment over time. As risk increases, the technical relationships between these three stocks causes the optimal mixture of strategies to change over time. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.