Trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand (1850-2010)
Trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand (1850-2010)
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.001
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发表时间：
2012-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Fouquet, Roger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fouquet, Roger
本文件的目的是估计收入和价格弹性的趋势，并为运输使用的未来增长提供见解，特别强调能源和技术转型的影响。结果表明，在英国客运需求的收入和价格弹性非常大（3.1和-1.5，分别）在世纪中期，并从那时起下降。2010年，陆路运输总需求的长期收入弹性和价格弹性估计为0.8和-0.6。这些趋势表明，发达经济体运输需求的未来弹性可能会逐渐下降，而在弹性往往较大的发展中经济体，随着经济的发展，弹性可能会下降得更快。由于弹性的下降趋势，未来的能源和技术转型不太可能产生世纪转型后出现的能源消费增长率。然而，能源和技术转型，如汽车和飞机，似乎已经推迟，并可能会推迟总运输需求的收入和价格弹性下降的趋势。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
The purpose of this paper is to estimate trends in income and price elasticities and to offer insights for the future growth in transport use, with particular emphasis on the impact of energy and technological transitions. The results indicate that income and price elasticities of passenger transport demand in the United Kingdom were very large (3.1 and -1.5, respectively) in the mid-nineteenth century, and declined since then. In 2010, long run income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand were estimated to be 0.8 and -0.6. These trends suggest that future elasticities related to transport demand in developed economies may decline very gradually and, in developing economies, where elasticities are often larger, they will probably decline more rapidly as the economies develop. Because of the declining trends in elasticities, future energy and technological transitions are not likely to generate the growth rates in energy consumption that occurred following transitions in the nineteenth century. Nevertheless, energy and technological transitions, such as the car and the airplane, appear to have delayed and probably will delay declining trends in income and price elasticity of aggregate transport demand. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.