Projected Increases in Hurricane Damage in the United States: The Role of Climate Change and Coastal Development
Projected Increases in Hurricane Damage in the United States: The Role of Climate Change and Coastal Development
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.03.034
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发表时间：
2017-08-01
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Dinan, Terry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dinan, Terry
气候变化和沿海开发的共同作用预计将增加全球范围内的飓风破坏。由于气候变化将在多大程度上改变飓风的形成以及在不同地点增加海平面，因此估计这些增加的幅度具有很大的不确定性；事实上，未来房地产风险的增加是不确定的，反映了地方、区域和国家的趋势以及不可预见的情况。本文使用解决这些挑战的框架评估了从现在到 2075 年登陆美国的飓风造成的风和风暴潮损害的潜在增加。我们发现，气候变化和沿海开发综合起来将导致飓风损失的增加速度快于美国经济的预期增长速度。此外，我们发现，未来 60 年内，面临重大预期损失的人数将平均增加八倍以上。对于缺乏向受灾严重地区提供联邦支持的政策或计划的国家，了解损失的集中程度可能尤为重要。 (C) 2017 年由 Elsevier B.V. 出版
The combined forces of climate change and coastal development are anticipated to increase hurricane damage around the globe. Estimating the magnitude of those increases is challenging due to substantial uncertainties about the amount by which climate change will alter the formation of hurricanes and increase sea levels in various locations; and the fact that future increases in property exposure are uncertain, reflecting local, regional and national trends as well as unforeseen circumstances. This paper assesses the potential increase in wind and storm surge damage caused by hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. between now and 2075 using a framework that addresses those challenges. We find that, in combination, climate change and coastal development will cause hurricane damage to increase faster than the U.S. economy is expected to grow. In addition, we find that the number of people facing substantial expected damage will, on average, increase more than eight-fold over the next 60 years. Understanding the concentration of damage may be particularly important in countries that lack policies or programs to provide federal support to hard-hit localities. (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V.